702
FXUS64 KCRP 181124
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
524 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING
- STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WITH WINDS CALMING OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, FOG HAS ALREADY
BEGAN DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO
BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AROUND MID MORNING AHEAD
OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
CLEARING THE REGION BY 6PM. WITH THE PRESENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE IN THE REGION, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE GENERALLY LOW WITH
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL BEING ALONG THE FRONT (30-45%). CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TOO GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY
IN THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE WE BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM UP SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
AS ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE CATEGORY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW END RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 15%) WILL RETURN
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING
(15-17Z) FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN BACK NORTHERLY AS A FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING THE COAST BY
00Z. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS (GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS)
AND LOW CHANCE (20-45%) FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. THE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY BACK TO WEAK TO MODERATE. WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AROUND 15 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY VEER
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW END RAIN CHANCES
(15-30%) WILL RETURN MID- WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A MID- LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 47 69 51 / 40 0 0 0
VICTORIA 75 43 69 43 / 40 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 50 70 53 / 40 10 0 0
ALICE 78 47 69 48 / 50 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 74 49 67 52 / 30 0 0 0
COTULLA 74 44 71 51 / 30 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 79 48 69 50 / 30 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 74 52 65 56 / 30 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ230>234-
240>244-246-247-347.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...NP/92
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