249
FXUS64 KCRP 182027
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
227 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
AT TIME OF WRITING, A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA, BRINGING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT, COLD AND DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST, WHERE LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND THE LOW
50S. A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AIR
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAINS, WHILE
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW (20%) CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
- LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 50 DEGREES CHRISTMAS
MORNING.
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT OUR COLDEST NIGHT IN THE FORECAST; LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S OVER THE NORTHERN VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE
COAST. THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
OVER OUR OPEN WATERS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL RETURN ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE WAA, LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEYOND TO HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. LOWS WARM TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS CHRISTMAS: A MID-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE PROGRESSING THROUGH
TEXAS. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG AND FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL BE BY CHRISTMAS. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/CMC HAVE A
BRIEF WEAK FRONT MAKING IT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY,
WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT WASHED OUT WELL NORTH. ALL IN ALL, THERE
WILL BE NO SNOW FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THERE'S A 70-90% CHANCE OF MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 70 DEGREES AND A LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF LOWS
CHRISTMAS MORNING BELOW 50.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS TAF CYCLE. BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 18Z TO AROUND 21Z BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND
00Z. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL SITES TO REPRESENT
THIS AS WELL THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS IN AND
AROUND PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN BACK NORTHERLY AND MAY GUST TO ABOVE 20 KNOTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
A LOW CHANCE (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONG (APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS) TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 01Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BACK TO WEAK TO MODERATE. WEAK TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK ONSHORE BY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK
AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 48 69 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 45 70 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 51 68 53 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 47 69 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 50 67 53 69 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 46 71 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 49 68 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 53 67 57 67 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...KRS/98
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