307
FXUS64 KCRP 191111
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
511 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
QUIET CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
A SURFACE HIGH IS GOING TO PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT YIELDING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WARMING BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES NEXT WEEK
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMING
TREND BEGINS SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD TO SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
ADVECTING A WARMER AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN, PROMOTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. A TROUGH WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND WILL EJECT A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE OF TEXAS,
HOWEVER, MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND THE
TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE POTENTIAL FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR ZERO FOR ALL THE OF LONG TERM EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE LOW END RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) ARE IN THE FORECAST
DEPENDING WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BACK TO
WEAK TO MODERATE. MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WEAKENING TO LOW TO MODERATE VALUES SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THROUGH MID- WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS BRIEFLY
STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
END CHANCES FOR RAIN (20-35%) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 53 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 69 45 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 71 54 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 70 50 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 67 54 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 71 50 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 70 52 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 65 58 68 55 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...NP/92
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