936
FXUS64 KCRP 191936
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
136 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- A DRY "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW, COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING,
RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOW- TO-MID
50S.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO
TODAY. HOWEVER, A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A DRY "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, AROUND 10-15 MPH, WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
AGAIN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BECOME
NOTABLY COOLER. THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS MAY EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY?
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHRISTMAS EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT INTO S TX FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL AFFECT ON S TX WEATHER WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEING AROUND
2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY, AND WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
EAST AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL USHER WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S TX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE BY CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT, MAINLY WITH
TIMING AND TEMPERATURE. THE GFS HAS A FASTER AND STRONGER FROPA
WITH THE CANADIAN NOT FAR BEHIND. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND
WEAKEST. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND WHICH SHOWS A
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 2-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE BY TUE AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
(10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING ALL THE
MODELS HAVE IN COMMON FOR S TX ON CHRISTMAS IS THAT NONE OF THEM
SHOW ANY SNOW. CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY ARE STILL 6-7 DAYS
AWAY, SO KEEP MONITORING THE WEATHER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT BRIEF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS VCT AND ALI FRIDAY MORNING, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PROMOTING DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY, BECOMING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. THE
FLOW MAY BECOME MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 54 72 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 45 72 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 54 71 50 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 52 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 55 72 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 49 73 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 54 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 59 69 54 67 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...KRS/98
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