971
FXUS64 KCRP 200947
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
FOG IS NOTED THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK TO LIFT THIS
MORNING AS THE VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER MIXES OUT. WE'LL SEE SOME
MORNING CLOUDS BEFORE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
SOME FILTERING THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
OUT OF THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS TODAY, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE SURFACE
FEATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY?
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHRISTMAS EVE.
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A FEW TROUGHS AND WEAKNESSES MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. THE STRONGEST OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY, TRANSITIONING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY) AND
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW TO MEDIUM RAINFALL AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES (20-50%) MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN
STORE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 300 K LEVEL WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY ON SUNDAY MORNING, RETURN FLOW WILL
PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUMPS TEMPERATURES DOWN BY AROUND 5
DEGREES F. THIS CHANGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS ONSHORE FLOW
IS PROGGED TO RESUME BY THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW
80S RANGE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A HINT OF PATCHY FOG FOR
ALI AND VCT, SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 6SM BR FOR BOTH SITES IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY, BECOMING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BECOME MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 45 66 54 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 69 38 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 73 49 69 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 72 44 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 70 49 64 56 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 72 42 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 72 44 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 68 54 65 60 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...LS/77
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