471
FXUS64 KCRP 210531
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1131 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- A DRY "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON,
ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUD COVER. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. A
"BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, USHERING IN COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
EXPECTED IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY, NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST, MAINTAINING SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOLER
CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
WITH LOW 70S ELSEWHERE, REFLECTING A SLIGHT DIP COMPARED TO RECENT
TRENDS. BY LATE SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD,
ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, IMPACTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS, AND THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEAK COLD FRONT LATE CHRISTMAS EVE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHRISTMAS EVE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED S/W PROPAGATING ACROSS
TEXAS WILL START THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY INDUCING A MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY SENDING A FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COMBINED MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPES 500-1000 J/KG) AND
LITTLE CAP WILL CREATE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS
CHRISTMAS DAY BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING AGAIN BY THAT EVENING AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST
REGION BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL STALL A FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA.
THUS TO SUMMARIZE, IT WILL BE A WARM WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY AND
CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS CHRISTMAS
EVE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THE AREA AS A DRY FRONT BACKS THROUGH WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM
ALL TAF SITES AS PROBS ARE VERY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY VIS REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND REMAIN
LIGHT, SHIFTING FROM NORTH TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY,
BECOMING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BECOME MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
(CHRISTMAS DAY) AND THEN DISSIPATE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 48 69 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 39 67 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 50 71 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 45 70 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 50 67 56 72 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 46 71 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 47 71 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 56 67 60 71 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....JM/75
AVIATION...PH/83
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