795
FXUS64 KCRP 212009
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
209 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT STILL PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WILL USHER MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON TIMING, AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS WELL, BUT WILL BE
STRONGER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A 20-25KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THAT AREA. ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW (5-15%), CAN NOT RULE
OUT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG TOWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND DUE TO PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 70S AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION. A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEAK COLD FRONT LATE CHRISTMAS EVE
- LOW TO MEDIUM (15-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY, MAINLY EAST, AND AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES INCLUDING A COUPLE OF BACK TO BACK
LOWS THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE
INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND ANOTHER ONE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION CHRISTMAS EVE HAS INCREASED AND IS
NOW A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE GENERALLY WEST OF I-37 WITH A MODERATE (30-
50%) CHANCE EAST OF I-37. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE INCREASES SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CURRENTLY, HAVE RUN WITH THE NBM AS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS
FRONT. REGARDLESS, EXPECTING A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SECOND FRONT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS.
GENERALLY EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE 70S TO THE MID 80S
NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS BUT ONLY BY A FEW
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS START OUT IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION
DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEHIND EACH FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS S TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
MOST OF TONIGHT. A WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TODAY, AND
AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT, WILL USHER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS LRD, ALI AND CRP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING (AFTER 09Z) AND COT BY AROUND 11-13Z. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING, AS WELL AS CIG HEIGHTS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON MVFR VS VFR CIGS, HAVE LEANED TOWARD
LOWER MVFR CLOUD BASES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE DEVELOPING AND USHERING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA. FOR NOW, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS LRD THEN
COT, WHILE VFR CIGS DEVELOP FOR ALI AND CRP. VCT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. CHANGES MAY BE MADE TO THE TIMING AND
CIGS WITH LATER UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
A WEAK TO MODERATE EAST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. THE FLOW MAY BECOME MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS NEXT WEEK BECOMING VARIABLE BRIEFLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT CHRISTMAS DAY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 40-65% OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 55 73 61 79 / 0 10 0 0
VICTORIA 40 73 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 56 73 62 81 / 0 10 0 0
ALICE 49 75 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 55 72 62 76 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 50 74 60 81 / 0 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 53 74 60 79 / 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 61 71 65 73 / 0 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...TE/81
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page