616
FXUS64 KCRP 141657
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1057 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND FURTHER
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BUT A FEW ISOLATED AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND COULD STILL A LITTLE HIGHER TOTALS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC TOWARD S TX THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
AS A 20-30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1-1.2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY, COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH
PWATS 1-1.3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF S TX TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS S TX TODAY, THEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING UP TO THE GREAT LAKES, IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COASTAL TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS S TX AND PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE ENERGY ALOFT, ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%). THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE.
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SMALL
DIURNAL CHANGE BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 50S EACH DAY AND IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- BRIEF WARM-UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCES OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNINGS OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD, GETTING REPLACED WITH A BROAD STRETCHED SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD TO END
THE WEEK, RETURNING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS
EXTEND INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, DROPPING TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY, LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LET'S FOCUS ON THE TAIL-END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST: SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND EFFICIENT CAA ON
SUNDAY WILL DROP HIGHS NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM THE DAY BEFORE, IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WE'LL
LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ISLANDS. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF MONDAY MORNING, IT
ALIGNS WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL,
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BOTH OF THESE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOUR TIME FRAMES.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO PROTECT THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PLANTS, PIPES, AND
PETS. JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
ALL ARE URGED TO STAY INFORMED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AIDING IN
MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIP BUT THIS IS BEYOND 7 DAYS OUT, MEANING A LOT CAN
CHANGE. BUT WE SHOULDN'T NEGLECT THAT THIS AIRMASS APPEARS COLDER
THAN LAST WEEK'S AND IS AIDED IN BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES; THE ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WARRANTS CONCERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS S TX WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS LRD, ALI AND CRP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD
NORTH TO COT AND VCT TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, THEN IFR THIS EVENING AS RAIN
CHANCES BECOME LIKELY. THERE IS PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALI, CRP AND LRD AFTER 00Z. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. COT AND VCT
SHOW LATER TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY, BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW VEERS
SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT,
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY THEN STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH
TO LOW CHANCES ON THURSDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 50 55 45 / 50 70 70 10
VICTORIA 61 46 56 39 / 10 60 70 10
LAREDO 55 48 55 47 / 20 70 50 10
ALICE 58 46 54 43 / 50 80 80 10
ROCKPORT 60 48 57 44 / 30 70 80 20
COTULLA 58 47 57 42 / 20 60 40 0
KINGSVILLE 58 48 55 44 / 60 70 80 20
NAVY CORPUS 60 52 56 49 / 50 80 80 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...TE/81
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