855
FXUS64 KCRP 150514
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1114 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TAPERING
OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN PRECIPITATION AND COOL TEMPERATURES THRU
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH HAS LED TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
AND INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS HAS
LED TO WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES BELOW 4 MILES. A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTH TIP OF TEXAS TONIGHT AND LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL IN TURN
INCREASE AND HAS THUS WARRANTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
OVER LAND, THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS BRUSH COUNTRY WITH BETWEEN 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TOMORROW. AS
WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT TOMORROW NIGHT CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- BRIEF WARM-UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCES OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNINGS OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND
THURSDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL START
AROUND THE 40S, BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, WE GET INTO THE
RETURN FLOW AND THE 500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST, WE WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND THE TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GET INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO
THAT THE REGION COOLS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES COOL TO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY MORNING. NOW FOR THE INTERESTING
PART...MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MORE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO WHAT OUR LOWS HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS (40S MAYBE UPPER 30S).
THE 40S ARE EXPECTED TO GO OUT IN THE GULF. SO THE LOWS NOW BECOME A
LITTLE MORE IMPORTANT WITH FREEZING (32°F) OUT TO THE ISLANDS, AND
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW 30° MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS A LITTLE COLDER, ESPECIALLY IN
THE BRUSH COUNTRY, NEAR CHOKE CANYON. THE MODELS ARE STILL A LITTLE
UNTRUSTWORTHY AS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS FOR THE MORNING RUNS OF THE
NBM, THE LOWS WERE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. THIS TRANSITION TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES HAS ONLY BEEN AROUND WITHIN THE LAST 6-12 HOURS.
SO WHILE I'M LEAVING THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES IN, I'M NOT SURE IF
THAT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AT THIS POINT.
ALONG THE SAME VEIN, THERE IS WINTRY (SNOW/FZRA) PRECIPITATION IN
GRIDS AS THERE IS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BELOW FREEZING
CONDITIONS. DO I THINK IT WILL BE THERE? UNCERTAIN. SINCE, I'M NOT
CONFIDENT IN THE TEMPERATURES VERIFYING, I'M NOT CONFIDENT THAT
THERE WILL BE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF
WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS OCCURS, THEN WE COULD HAVE A TRACE OF SNOW,
WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN PATCHES, HOWEVER, IT IS A BIG QUESTION MARK.
IF THE MODELS AND THE NBM CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, THEN I'LL JUMP ON BOARD. FOR NOW, I DON'T WHAT TO HYPE
IT, BUT WILL TALK ABOUT IT SO IT DOESN'T COME AS A COMPLETE
SURPRISE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. VSBY'S
AND CIG'S ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN TONIGHT. SHOWERS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR NOW BUT MODERATE CHANCES REMAIN FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LIFR CONDITIONS REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TOMORROW EVENING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH TIP OF TEXAS TONIGHT WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ENOUGH WINDS ACROSS SOME OF
THE BAYS AS WELL, SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
EXTENSION OF THE SCA TO THE BAYS AS WELL. MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN
PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE.
THURSDAY, EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW TO DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY, AND BECOME WEAK TO MODERATE BY THE AFTERNOON. WAVES
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO SUBSIDE. WINDS REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE
AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
TO MODERATE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE
NORTHEAST, AND REMAINS SO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 56 44 63 / 60 70 10 10
VICTORIA 47 57 38 65 / 50 60 10 10
LAREDO 48 55 46 65 / 60 40 10 0
ALICE 47 55 42 64 / 70 70 10 10
ROCKPORT 49 57 44 63 / 70 60 20 10
COTULLA 48 57 42 66 / 50 40 0 0
KINGSVILLE 49 55 44 64 / 70 70 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 52 57 48 60 / 60 80 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
GMZ250-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ270-275.
SHORT TERM...CLM/93
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...BF/80
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