986
FXUS64 KCRP 151748
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1148 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CONTINUES TODAY, THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATED WIDESPREAD WEAK ECHOES ACROSS S TX
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ONLY A COUPLE OF SITES ARE REPORTING -RA.
THAT SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET
TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND INCREASES THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
AND BRINGS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS S TX. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS PER LAPS ANALYSIS, IS DEEPENING
AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTAL
BEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS S TX. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE AREAL RAIN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS S TX, BUT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE GULF WATERS, THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER DYNAMICS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY.
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES, THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MEDIUM TO HIGH. (30-50% WEST TO
60-80% EAST)
A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES,
IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS TX TONIGHT WITH RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE RAIN EASTWARD WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS S TX THIS EVENING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S GIVEN THE OVERCAST
SKIES/RAIN. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF S TX. MORE SUNSHINE THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY PRECIP
INLAND, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
- INCREASING THREAT FOR BLACK ICE FROM REGULAR RAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY REFREEZING OVERNIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER IN AND HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BEFORE THE
STRONG ARCTIC COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, DROPPING LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S.
LET'S DIVE A BIT DEEPER ON VARIOUS FEATURES AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THAT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
HAZARDOUS IMPACTS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, DROPPING
HIGHS TO AROUND 50. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CONUS, AN INVERTED SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A SURFACE LOW BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE NOTED AT 700MB WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS DURING THIS TIME, AIDING IN LIFT. THESE THREE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO SET THE STAGE AND WARRANT CONCERN ON WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
CHANCES OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE NBM,
THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS 50-90% EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES OVER THE ISLANDS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. PROBABILITIES INCREASE EVEN MORE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AT 80-95% OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. BUT NOT ONLY
ARE WE LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING FREEZING, WHAT ABOUT OUR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY? WHILE WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN THE FORECAST, THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO NOT EXCEED
FREEZING. DURING THIS TIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH WILL INCREASE PWATS TO AROUND 1.0", NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. COMBINING FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH SATURATED
LOW-LEVELS FROM SURFACE TO 700MB, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND
SLEET. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING IN AN ABOVE FREEZING SATURATED
WARM-NOSE LAYER FROM 850-700MB. HOW DEEP THE BELOW FREEZING LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB WILL DETERMINE WHETHER LIQUID DROPLETS
HAVE THE TIME TO REFREEZE AS SLEET BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE OR
FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE AS FREEZING RAIN AND ICE. THE NBM
HAS A 50% CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAJORITY OF SOUTH TEXAS
WITH EXCEPTIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL PORTION OF
COUNTIES. WE ALSO HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF ANY REGULAR RAIN FALLING
DURING THE DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY REFREEZING OVERNIGHT, ADDING
BLACK ICE TO THE MIX AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW BUT WE'D NEED MUCH COOLER MID-LEVELS OR
SIGNIFICANT SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, THAT DOES NOT
LOOK VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 20S INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. STEADY WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WILL CAUSE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS BELOW 15
DEGREES.
THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT, A LOT CAN CHANGE. BUT IT WOULD BE
NEGLIGENT TO NOT BE CONCERNED WITH THE INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT IN
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, WINTRY PRECIPITATION, AND THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. PLEASE STAY INFORMED, BE PREPARED, AND
TAKE ACTION TO PROTECTING THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A COASTAL LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
PULL THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE OFFSHORE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON (~21Z).
AS IT DOES THE TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY HAVE THE CIGS GO FROM THE
THE MAINLY MVFR/IFR TO VFR/MVFR, AND THEN VFR BY THE LATER
EVENING, AT THE MOST (AFTER 03Z). SO THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS VFR AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES, WITH NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY LEADING TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
INCREASING SEAS. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST TONIGHT, WINDS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO
WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE, THUS THE ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY,
THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WEAK AND
SHIFT ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AND
STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE LEVELS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS IN ITS
WAKE, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH, 50 TO 70
PERCENT, MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 55 43 64 46 / 70 0 0 0
VICTORIA 56 39 67 42 / 80 0 0 0
LAREDO 55 45 67 48 / 40 0 0 0
ALICE 55 42 66 44 / 60 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 57 43 64 49 / 80 10 0 0
COTULLA 57 43 68 46 / 40 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 54 43 65 44 / 60 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 56 48 61 53 / 80 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ250-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ270-275.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...JSL/86
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