409
FXUS64 KCRP 152338
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
538 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
MAIN CONCERN THE NEAR TERM IS THE END OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE. THEN, HOW
FAST WILL IT CLEAR OUT, AND ANY IMPACTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES. SFC
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE WITH ITS ATTENDANT SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PULL SOME COOLER DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN WILL BE DONE BY
21Z/WED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANY DRIZZLE THAT LINGERS ALONG THE
COAST TO BE DONE AROUND 00Z/THU. OVERNIGHT, THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS THE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH (700-500 MB LAYER)
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AT 850 MB TO LINGER A BIT
LONGER, SO WOULD EXPECT THAT MOST SITES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.
AM MILDLY CONCERNED THAT THE BRUSH COUNTRY COULD HAVE LOCATIONS IN
DRAINAGES THAT TEMPERATURE COULD FALL TO FREEZING, WHILE THE MAIN
LOCATIONS (BEEVILLE, THREE RIVERS, AND GEORGE WEST) WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE DATA, THE
PROBABILITY OF GOING BELOW 32° IS LESS THAN 10%.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS CLEAR OUT, BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGIN TO DRIFT IN BY
THE AFTERNOON, WITH FLAT BUILDING RIDGE AND THE SUNSHINE, VS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE 60S, AND MAY BE 70 IN THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
LOOK TO KEEP THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY PRECIP
INLAND, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
- INCREASING THREAT FOR BLACK ICE FROM REGULAR RAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY REFREEZING OVERNIGHT
ODDLY ENOUGH, THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH CHANCE TO THE FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL INCREASING REGARDING THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION, THOUGH TIMING AND THE COLDEST POSSIBLE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUESTIONABLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SUNDAY'S HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THEY
DIP INTO THE 20S EACH NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WINDS 15-20 MPH
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
(WIND CHILLS BELOW 15 DEGREES) UNLIKELY, BUT POSSIBLE.
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MONDAY AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO A SURFACE LOW, AIDING IN MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO OUR LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WHILE CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO CREEP HIGHER, IT IS STILL LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT TREND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH
WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON ANY SNOW OR SLEET. THE TROUGH/SURFACE
LOW WILL KEEP A WARM LAYER FROM 850MB-700MB WHICH WILL ALSO PLAY A
HUGE FACTOR IN OUR PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THIS WARM-NOSE COULD BE
SHALLOW ENOUGH OR HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT ALLOWS THE DROPLETS TO
REFREEZE AS SLEET BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE OR IT MAY BE DEEP OR
LOW ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN/ICE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A MIX OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME AREAS SEEING A BIT OF SLEET MIXED IN.
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, ICY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE THIS IS POTENTIALLY DISRUPTIVE AND DEFINITELY EXCITING, PLEASE
REMEMBER THIS IS A LONG WAYS OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE: MODELS MAY
CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER, TIMING OF THE MOISTURE, LIFT, AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MESH LEAVING US WITH JUST RAIN, ETC. THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION IS TO PREPARE FOR COLD WEATHER. PROTECT YOUR PEOPLE
(NEIGHBORS, ELDERLY FAMILY MEMBERS...), PETS (INCLUDING LIVESTOCK),
PLANTS, AND YOUR PIPES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO LOWER
CIG'S. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS
CONTINUING TO LIFT. MOST CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS HAS TAPERED
OFF. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
HILL COUNTRY IS PRODUCING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. AS
THE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST, AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST,
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS, TONIGHT, AND THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE BAYS, BY THURSDAY
MORNING, WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE, WHILE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL STILL
BE MODERATE TO STRONG. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING, BUT THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY THE WEATHER WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY. THURSDAY NIGHT
THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEAK FLOW WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM LOW SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 42 64 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 39 66 41 72 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 45 67 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 42 66 44 75 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 45 64 49 69 / 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 42 68 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 42 65 44 75 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 47 61 54 69 / 10 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ250-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ270-275.
SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...BF/80
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