839
FXUS64 KCRP 161132
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET WEATHER WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TODAY WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUD COVER, AT
LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. BASED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE,
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS
MEXICO AND TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY LEADING
TO SOME THIN CIRRUS, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUN AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE
EAST TODAY, WILL LEAD TO HIGHS BEING WARMER WITH VALUES AT OR NEAR
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TODAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S BY FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FREEZING RAIN.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY PRECIP
INLAND, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ARCTIC
AIR WILL INFILTRATE SOUTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH,
BUT THE COLDEST AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IMMEDIATELY. AFTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SATURDAY, TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOWER LYING AREAS NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S AS COLD ADVECTION
PERSISTS THROUGH THE AREA. A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A LOT TO UNPACK IN DECODING THIS FORECAST, AND IT'S STILL 5
DAYS OUT, SO EXPECT CHANGES AS WE GO FORWARD. SOME OF THE KEY
THINGS WE'RE FOCUSING ON THOUGH...
MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE CONFINED PRETTY LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES MOISTURE IN. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE NO SNOW INTRODUCED EVEN BEFORE IT WOULD MOVE THROUGH
A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT (BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE) TO GET SNOW AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COLD
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, BUT BASED ON A TOP-DOWN MODEL, IT DOESN'T
APPEAR COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE THE SUPER COOLED WATER DROPS, THUS THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPES LOOK TO BE RAIN AND, IF IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS BELOW FREEZING, FREEZING RAIN. THE BEGINNING
TIME OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DAYTIME MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE
BEGINS COMING IN. THE END TIME IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU LOOK AT THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS (MORE ON THAT IN
A MOMENT). THE MAIN FOCUS PERIOD FOR IMPACTS RIGHT NOW IS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT IT
TAKES VERY LITTLE FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS, THUS THE CONCERN.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS COIN IS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE SIGNAL
HAS BEEN VERY STRONG FOR THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR SEVERAL DAYS, AND
WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES. THE LATEST GFS HAS
THROWN A BIT OF A WILD CARD OUT, WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW
DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INLAND A BIT,
THUS BRINGING SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AIR TO THE COAST. HOWEVER,
LOOKING AT THE GFE ENSEMBLE FORECAST, THERE'S NO NOTABLE CHANGE IN
PROBS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES
ALONG THE LINES OF OTHER MODELS, AND WILL NOT BE JUMPING ON THIS GFS
RUN WITHOUT MORE SUPPORT. THAT SAID...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY INLAND, AND WILL KEEP ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT THIS TIME. AWAY FROM THE COAST, OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY, AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-50%) THAT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS DONT WARM
ABOVE FREEZING THAT AFTERNOON. OVERALL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS A LONG WAYS OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE:
MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER, TIMING OF THE MOISTURE, LIFT,
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MESH LEAVING US WITH JUST RAIN,
ETC. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO PREPARE FOR COLD WEATHER.
PROTECT YOUR PEOPLE (NEIGHBORS, ELDERLY FAMILY MEMBERS...), PETS
(INCLUDING LIVESTOCK), PLANTS, AND YOUR PIPES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE CYCLE
UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. NO HAZARDS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE SITES AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHERE SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 7 FEET, BUT SHOULD BE BELOW 7 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING WEAK TO MODERATE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH, INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 63 47 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 66 42 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 67 48 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 65 44 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 63 50 70 54 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 66 46 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 64 45 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 60 54 69 57 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ270-275.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...ANM/88
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