032
FXUS64 KCRP 170514
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1114 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VERY PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH, BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK
- LOW TO MEDIUM (25-45%) CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY FREEZING RAIN.
A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR INFILTRATION OF A COLD ARCTIC
AIR MASS INTO SOUTH TEXAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IS SLOWLY
INCREASING. CONFIDENCE SHOULD IMPROVE FURTHER ONCE THE NAM IS
AVAILABLE IN FUTURE RUNS. REGARDLESS, WE HAVE ALREADY INTRODUCED
SOME PROBABILITIES FOR A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION OR A
WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BUT FIRST LOOKING AT THIS WEEKEND, AFTER FROPA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER CONDITIONS.
THE COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERLAPPING OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS WHAT HAS BEEN SO CHALLENGING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. FREEZING RAIN IS STILL THE MAIN THREAT BUT SLEET AND SNOW
REMAIN POSSIBLE. DETERMINISTIC MODEL (JUST ONE MODEL RUN) SOUNDINGS
FOR TUESDAY HAVE TEMPERATURES BORDERING THE FREEZING LEVEL UP
THROUGH 700 MB WITH A MOIST PROFILE, WHICH WOULD BE SHORT OF THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) ALONG THE COASTAL BEND BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
CLOSER TO THE DGZ ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS,
WHICH WOULD BE THE LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE SNOW DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS (THOUSANDS OF MODEL RUNS) CONTINUE TO
SHOW ALL FORMS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION STILL IN PLAY ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH TEXAS, ALBEIT FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKING THE BEST.
AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SATURDAY, HIGHS
SUNDAY START TO DECREASE WITH THE LOW POINT ON TUESDAY WITH LOW TO
MID 40S. LOWS AHEAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS REMAIN IN THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AFTER TUESDAY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS
TO BE MAINLY DRY AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50-60S FOR HIGHS
AND MID 30S TO 40S FOR LOWS THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIP
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS A LONG WAYS OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE:
MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER, TIMING OF THE MOISTURE, LIFT,
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MESH LEAVING US WITH JUST RAIN,
ETC. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO PREPARE FOR COLD WEATHER.
PROTECT YOUR PEOPLE (NEIGHBORS, ELDERLY FAMILY MEMBERS...), PETS
(INCLUDING LIVESTOCK), PLANTS, AND PIPES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEAK AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH THE LOWER LEVELS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
THOUGH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM THIS
EVENING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST TONIGHT,
THEN BECOME TO WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY.
FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MOVES OFFSHORE,
INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOW WILL
WEAKEN TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY. SOME GUSTS NEAR GALE
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 47 74 55 70 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 41 72 52 66 / 0 0 10 0
LAREDO 48 75 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 44 75 53 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 52 69 54 67 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 46 74 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 45 75 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 54 69 57 66 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...JCP/84
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