614
FXUS64 KCRP 172119
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
319 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE
EXCITING WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WE HAVE ALL
BEEN TALKING ABOUT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIR WILL STREAM IN BEHIND THE FRONT PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 30S. FORTUNATELY, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF OR ALONG THIS FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF HWY-59 BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20 TO LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-30S. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT (AROUND 10 MPH), BUT WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO ADDRESS THESE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
MONDAY, MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY, WILL BEGIN COLD AND MOSTLY
SUNNY, THOUGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND BEGINS
TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
STARTING AROUND MIDDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S INLAND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S NEAR THE COAST.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BECOMES MORE COMPLEX WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF LOW, IS EXPECTED TO PULL
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE REINFORCING CAA IS DRIVEN BY A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE GULF. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, BASED ON TOP-DOWN MODEL
SOUNDING ANALYSIS, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
COMPLETELY FREEZE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS, MAKING FREEZING RAIN
THE MOST LIKELY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE (20-50%) AT THIS TIME, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION APPEARING TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HWY-59 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER, AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, BUT EVEN MINIMAL
FREEZING RAIN COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES OR EVEN POSSIBLY EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN EFFECT
AS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S WITH COLDER WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK IS ANTICIPATED, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND.
AREAS WITH IN A FEW MILES OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES OR EVEN POSSIBLY
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE TEENS AND
LOW 20S FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S. AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
ANOTHER GULF LOW DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING RAPID WAA THAT WOULD MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS FORECAST, PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE TYPE AND TIMING OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THE EXTENDED DURATION OF
SUBFREEZING OR NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. MAKE SURE TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PIPES, PEOPLE, PETS, AND PLANTS AS
THIS PROLONGED COLD EVENT UNFOLDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY FROM 06Z-12Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT COT AND LRD, WHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO MODERATE TO STRONG BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS WITH A FEW GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE SUNDAY. THIS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH IN
RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 71 36 50 / 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 54 63 32 49 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 54 75 39 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 56 72 36 49 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 57 64 37 50 / 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 54 72 37 52 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 56 73 36 50 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 60 67 40 49 / 10 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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