089
FXUS64 KCRP 181134
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
534 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
OUR APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY, NOT GET TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS OF WRITING. EXPECT IT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5AM AND 9AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF
RAPIDLY. CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY ARE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AT MOST
SITES ALREADY, THINK THIS IS A LIMITING FACTOR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE 30S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, BUT SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF. SAME STORY FOR
WIND CHILL VALUES, WE'RE NEAR CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT REASSESS WEATHER THE NEED FOR EITHER A FREEZE WARNING OR
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WITH COOLER AIR INFILTRATING,
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 50S,
AGAIN UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS UPDATE.
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
REGION MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH NUDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WHICH
COULD TRANSITION OVER TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES, MODELS ARE DEPICTING
A DECENT WARM LAYER RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
COOL AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. GFS IS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AND WITH THE ECMWF RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL,
THOUGH IT REMAINS THE COOLER SOLUTION. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THIS
WARM LAYER AND WARMER TRENDS ALOFT THE THINKING ON THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FAIRLY UNKNOWN AND WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING HOWEVER THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
COMBINATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL POTENTIALLY
CAUSE IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS WE
HEAD INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND
20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S AND 40S TO BEGIN THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAYTIME
PERIOD AND WHILE NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS NORTH REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 60S BY THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL THANKFULLY END THIS STRETCH OF COLDER WEATHER.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A BARRAGE OF WINTER PRODUCTS
NEXT WEEK, THEREFORE IT IS RECOMMENDED TO CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR
FUTURE UPDATES. CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS BY PROTECTING PIPES,
PEOPLE, PETS, AND PLANTS DUE TO THE EXPECTED EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH, AND EVENTUALLY INCREASING THEM TO MODERATE
LEVELS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS OR VIS CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. MODERATE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BUT WILL BECOME STRONG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE. THIS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 70 37 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 64 32 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 40 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 72 37 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 64 37 49 34 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 73 36 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 37 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 67 40 49 40 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ231-232-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...PH/83
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