191
FXUS64 KCRP 190344
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INCREASING
WINDS TO STRONG TO VERY STRONG. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE GALE WARNING AND WILL LINGER
AFTER THE GALE WARNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND COASTAL PLAINS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
- FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED
TO LESS THAN 40% AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH
COUNTRY REGISTERING MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO THE TEENS. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT AROUND 15-20 MPH AT TIMES, THESE
ARE PROGGED TO DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ENDING ANY EXISTING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 20-30%
RANGE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY, WHILE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY WARM TODAY DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICK TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS A SURGE IN
HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO STRONG CAA OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE, WHILE A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE COMBINATION OF THE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20-25 DEGREES F OVER PORTIONS OF
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND COASTAL PLAINS. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FROM 4 TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, AND BY TOMORROW NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S RANGE AREAWIDE. A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT COVERING ALL BUT THE COASTAL AND
ISLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT HAVE HELD OFF
ON ITS ISSUANCE RIGHT NOW AS TO NOT CONFUSE THE PUBLIC FROM THE
ONE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. NOW WITH THAT SAID, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD
DROP TO NEAR 15 DEGREES F OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND COUNTIES. THESE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA WITH PROLONGED
EXPOSURE. REMEMBER TO DRESS IN LAYERS, LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTDOORS,
AND DON'T FORGET TO PROTECT PEOPLE AT RISK, PETS, PIPES, AND
PLANTS FROM THESE VERY COLD CONDITIONS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD, AS PWATS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 0.25-0.40", AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH, THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ENTERING THE FORECAST, SO PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG-TERM
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HWY-59
BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
A ROBUST MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY, MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY,
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANCES TO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE,
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD,
REINFORCING CAA ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL TROUGH
TRANSITIONING INTO A GULF LOW, WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
MONDAY WILL BEGIN COLD AND MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SUB-FREEZING MORNING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS, CAPPING HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID-40S AND LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GULF
LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD, INTERACTING WITH THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS TO THE NORTH. INITIALLY, THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE FREEZING LAYER COMBINED WITH A
MODEST WARM NOSE ALOFT. THIS SETUP SUGGESTS LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES (20-60%) FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND RAIN AS THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW OR SLEET.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CENTERED IN THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING
RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE HWY-59 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE GULF LOW'S TRACK AND THE THERMAL PROFILE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SPLIT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EXTENT OF
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT, LEADING TO VARIABILITY IN FORECASTS.
HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODELS COMING INTO RANGE SOON SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CLARITY. CONTINUED MONITORING IS ADVISED AS DETAILS
EVOLVE.
AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, AND REFREEZING IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WITH LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S ON
WEDNESDAY, 50S ON THURSDAY, AND 50S TO 60S BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S TO 30S THROUGH FRIDAY,
PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION, PRESENTS SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS. TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. MINOR TO MODERATE DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
WPC'S WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX HIGHLIGHTING INCREASED RISKS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS, AND NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. PREPARATIONS SHOULD INCLUDE
PROTECTING PIPES, PETS, PLANTS, AND PEOPLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AT AREA
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT,
BEFORE DECOUPLING IN THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 36 49 33 49 / 0 0 0 50
VICTORIA 32 47 26 44 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 38 51 31 44 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 35 49 28 44 / 0 0 0 50
ROCKPORT 36 48 35 49 / 0 0 0 40
COTULLA 35 50 27 42 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 36 50 31 48 / 0 0 0 60
NAVY CORPUS 38 48 40 53 / 0 0 0 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ229>234-239>244-246-247.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ250-255-270-275.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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