149
FXUS64 KCRP 191745
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1145 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
COLD WEATHER IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS NOW INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF COOLING TO
GO. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LEADING
TO WIND CHILL VALUES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP A BITE TO THE AIR WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING TONIGHT, WE'RE
IN FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. A FREEZE WARNING ALONG WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
(WIND CHILL) ARE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9AM. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE A RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS. WE'LL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING THOUGH (MAINLY IN THE 40S) TO KEEP THIS ALL AS JUST RAIN
AND NO WINTER CONCERNS.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 10AM
THROUGH 5PM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
- A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN REGARDS TO THE WARM LAYER ABOVE
THE SURFACE THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LOT COOLER WHICH WOULD PROMOTE MORE OF A
SLEET/SNOW SETUP EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE NAM IS ALSO
FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THIS, COMBINING WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SLEET,
SNOW, AND ICING ACCUMULATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD
CAUSE A VARIETY OF IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME A WINTER STORM WATCH
WILL GO INTO EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST SPOTS
WITH SOME LOWER 40S OUT WEST. THERE REMAINS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS DO NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY,
PRIMARILY IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WIND CHILL WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WANE TUESDAY EVENING AND YIELD MORE
DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE REGION, WE WILL SEE OUR LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS AND POSSIBLY COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, SO CONTINUE
TO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE UPDATES. PREPARATIONS FOR THIS IMPENDING
COLD WEATHER SHOULD INCLUDE PROTECTING PIPES, PEOPLE, PETS, AND
PLANTS.
IN REGARDS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WE WILL BEGIN A VERY
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY,
THEN INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
THE 60S AND 70S BY THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE WELCOMED AFTER THIS
STRETCH OF COLDER WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE CYCLE AT AREA
TERMINALS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD FROM 16-18Z MONDAY
AT CRP WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECOUPLING BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, BUT BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY, LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
EXPECT STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOMES STRONG
AGAIN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A REINFORCING SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. HIGH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 49 32 50 30 / 0 0 60 90
VICTORIA 47 25 44 27 / 0 0 10 80
LAREDO 50 30 43 32 / 0 0 20 70
ALICE 49 27 45 27 / 0 0 60 90
ROCKPORT 49 34 50 30 / 0 0 50 90
COTULLA 50 27 42 30 / 0 0 20 80
KINGSVILLE 49 30 50 29 / 0 0 60 100
NAVY CORPUS 48 40 55 34 / 0 0 70 100
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-344-346-347.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ250-255-
270-275.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...ANM/88
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