722
FXUS64 KCRP 192305
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
505 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FREEZE WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
- WINTER STORM WARNING, FREEZE WATCH, AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING.
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT, BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY, AS A COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHES
THE AREA. A FREEZE WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32
DEGREES F, AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 16 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING, BUT AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ENTER BACK INTO THE REGION, THE FORECAST BECOMES
MUCH MORE COMPLICATED. LET'S BREAK IT DOWN...
ANOTHER SURGE OF FRIGID AIR IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE, WILL PROVIDE A SETTING FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. THE THERMAL PROFILE HAS TRENDED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS, WITH THE WARM NOSE
(INVERSION) NOW BEING REDUCED, FAVORING A WINTRY MIX EVENT OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE, SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO START LIQUID DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES. BUT, AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WE ARE ANTICIPATING A TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY
MIX LEADING TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WENT
AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO A WARNING, WHICH
WILL TAKE EFFECT BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION,
A FREEZE WATCH AND ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS LOWS COULD PLUMMET INTO
THE MID 20S, WITH CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES.
OUR MAIN IMPACT CONCERNS ARE THE ROADS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES, AS THESE WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD FREEZE
AWAY ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT ON SURFACES, MAKING CONDITIONS VERY
HAZARDOUS FOR TRAVELERS. PERSONS SHOULD DELAY ALL TRAVEL IF
POSSIBLE, AND ARE URGED TO STAY INDOORS. PREPARATIONS FOR THIS
IMPENDING COLD SPELL SHOULD INCLUDE PROTECTING PIPES, PEOPLE, PETS,
AND PLANTS. IF NECESSARY TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS, REMEMBER TO WEAR
LAYERS AS PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
HYPOTHERMIA. STAY WARM AND SAFE SOUTH TEXAS!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES AWAY, THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BE
PULLED OFFSHORE WITH IT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS, AND
RIDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SETS UP A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SFC TROUGH. WITH THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE, AND THE STRONG, NE GRADIENT, THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO BE
FORCED OUT OF THE REGION, BUT A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS LEFT IN ITS
WAKE. TRIED TO KICK THE SLEET OUT OF THE NBM NUMBERS AS THE
SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC (USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD) WERE MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE/SNOW SOUNDINGS THAN A MELT
AND REFREEZE TYPE OF SOUNDING. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW PELLET
(SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT) AT 18Z/TUE JUST AT THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
OFF THE COAST. SO THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINTRY MIX AS THE
EVENT ENDS. TRIED TO BALANCE THE SNOW/DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ENOUGH TO GET A WINTRY MIX. LOOKING THROUGH THE FRAM AS THE EVENT
COMES TO AN END, WE WILL GET A STORM TOTAL THROUGH 00Z/WED OF 0.5"
OF SNOW, MAINLY NEAR VCT (MOST OF WHICH FALLS MONDAY NIGHT), AND
A SWATH OF 0.05-0.10" OF ICE FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO VCT (MOST OF
WHICH FALLS MONDAY NIGHT). HOWEVER, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE SOME ICE, OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE TUESDAY
MORNING SUB-FREEZING LOWS WILL "WARM" TO THE MID 30S. THE
TEMPERATURES THEN START TO FALL BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND BY
TUESDAY EVENING, THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS ARE
BELOW FREEZING. THE COLD AIR THEN RUSHES INTO SOUTH TEXAS, AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE LOWER 20S IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS,
THE TEENS IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS, AND AROUND
THE MID 20S ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. THE ISLANDS LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING, BARELY. SO WE HAVE A FREEZE WATCH, AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THE WIND CHILLS BREAK 15°F IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
WHICH MAY NEED A EXTREME COLD WEATHER WARNING, BUT WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE THAT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE PUSHING
THAT BUTTON.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUB
FREEZING PROBABLY PROMPTING MORE FREEZE WATCH/WARNINGS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY MORNING. SATURDAY MORNING THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S, AND 50S ON SUNDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS REACH THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND THE AREA GETS INTO THE RETURN FLOW. 60S ON FRIDAY, 70S
SATURDAY, AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80 BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN AFTER 12Z. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS.
CEILINGS COULD BECOME MVFR TO IFR IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD, WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO WEAK TO MODERATE TONIGHT, BUT WILL BECOME
STRONG AGAIN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A REINFORCING
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 32 48 29 37 / 0 50 90 70
VICTORIA 25 44 25 37 / 0 20 80 70
LAREDO 31 43 30 39 / 0 30 80 30
ALICE 28 44 27 36 / 0 60 100 60
ROCKPORT 34 50 28 40 / 0 40 90 80
COTULLA 27 41 29 40 / 0 30 80 20
KINGSVILLE 30 47 27 36 / 0 60 100 70
NAVY CORPUS 39 52 32 39 / 0 60 100 90
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-344-346-347.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ250-255-
270-275.
SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...LS/77
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