624
FXUS64 KCRP 201115
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
515 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
-WIND CHILL VALUES 15-25 AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
-WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
VERY COLD AND DRY AIR IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING, BUT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TODAY, MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE. CLOUD COVER AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, AND LAYER PROFILES ARE
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPES YET, SO WE'RE LOOKING
AT A COLD RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
AS TEMPERATURES GET COLDER TONIGHT, THE CONCERN INCREASES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE SET-UP IS VERY
COMPLICATED AND ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE AT ANY POINT THROUGH THE PROFILE WILL AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS, THUS DESPITE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
EVENT, CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW.
IN REALITY, MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST 2 IF NOT 3
DIFFERENT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A BIG
LIMITING FACTOR IN PRECIP TYPE CONFIDENCE IS THE DRY AIR ALOFT,
LIMITING ANY ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH THAT IS IDEAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP AT
THE SURFACE. THE FROZEN VARIETY (SLEET OR SNOW) WILL BE MORE
FAVORED INLAND THAN NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE PROFILE WILL BE
COLDER, BUT ANY LOCATION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THESE.
SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER NORTH TOWARD THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS, AND IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR. NEAR THE COAST, FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
(AFTER TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING) WILL BE
THE PRIMARY WINTRY TYPE CONCERN, WHICH CAN BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL
AS RAIN FREEZES ON SURFACES CREATING A COAT OF ICE. ELEVATED
SURFACES (BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES) WILL BE THE MOST PRONE TO ICING
AS THESE SURFACES ARE NOT INSULATED FROM UNDERNEATH AND WILL GET
COLDER MORE QUICKLY. ACCUMULATIONS OF ALL PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY LIGHT, BUT IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH ACCUMULATION TO GENERATE
BIG IMPACTS.
IF THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ISN'T
ENOUGH, WE'RE ALSO GOING TO THROW IN SOME VERY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND
PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BEING DRY - BUT STILL COLD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, AND THE WIND WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH VERY FRIGID TEMPERATURES AS LOWS DROP
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME REFREEZING ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING WATER
FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION. THINK THAT THE STRONG WIND AND
DECREASING HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT AT DRYING THE GROUND,
BUT SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BE SURE TO KEEP PIPES,
PEOPLE, PETS, AND PLANTS PROTECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE
TO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION, WE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOWS UNFORTUNATELY,
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE END OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WE GET A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD RETURN INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY SATURDAY BEFORE HAVING
SOME 80S MAINLY OUT WEST SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY, WITH SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER NOON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT THINGS GET VERY MESSY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WHERE
AND WHEN, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THINK WE'LL START GETTING SOME
FREEZING/FROZEN TYPES WEST, GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN CRP TAF YET, BUT WILL NEED IT AFTER THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY PRECIP TYPE ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30KT. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY AFTER THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD ESPECIALLY EAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
ROUGH TO DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP TODAY, AND WILL
RAMP UP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS AND GUSTS OVER
40KTS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AND SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BAYS AND NEAR THE
COAST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO MODERATE LEVELS MID-WEEK AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 46 29 37 21 / 50 90 70 0
VICTORIA 42 26 36 15 / 10 80 70 0
LAREDO 44 30 40 23 / 20 90 20 0
ALICE 44 27 36 19 / 60 90 70 0
ROCKPORT 47 29 38 25 / 40 90 80 0
COTULLA 42 29 40 21 / 20 90 20 0
KINGSVILLE 46 28 36 19 / 60 90 70 0
NAVY CORPUS 51 31 39 30 / 60 90 90 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-
239>247-342>344-346-347.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-
239>247-344-346-347.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY
FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255-270-275.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...PH/83
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