936
FXUS64 KCRP 160531
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1131 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
- COLD FRONT CLEARING THE REGION THIS EVENING
- POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WARNING NEEDED SUNDAY
AS WE TAKE A LOOK AT SATELLITE, THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER DRIER AIR TO
CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE REGION TEMPERING HIGHS SUNDAY TO THE
60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE CHILLY AS WELL DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE 30S TO THE NORTH WITH 40S ALONG THE COAST AND TO THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE
TOMORROW. IN ADDITION TO THIS, HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WE WILL MONITOR THESE POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW, THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET TO BEGIN THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM
BRIEFLY AHEAD OUR NEXT FRONT WITH ONSHORE RETURNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER THE WATERS.
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL CANADIAN LOWS AND A PACIFIC NW LOW WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AS THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THEY WILL EJECT A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING
FOR ARCTIC COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW TO MODERATE (30-50%) CHANCE OF RAIN
TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20-30S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE ISLANDS
WILL APPROACH OR REACH FREEZING AS WELL. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. A LOW
(20-35%) CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR WINDS TO MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES NEAR THE COAST WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND CURRENTLY EXPECTING A LOW TO MODERATE
(20-40%) CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS IN A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FROM
THE REMNANTS OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IN INDICATING LOW CHANCES
FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COASTAL BEND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
AT THE TIME OF WRITING, VCT SITS UNDER IFR VSBYS. AS A PRECAUTION,
HAVE LEFT IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG FOR ALI, CRP, AND VCT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 414 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS WEAKENING
BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY FOR A GALE
WARNING WILL BE MONITORED SO CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE
UPDATES. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. THERE'S A MODERATE CHANCE FOR
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. LOOK FOR A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 47 64 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 41 61 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 48 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 46 65 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 46 63 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 44 68 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 47 65 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 49 61 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...KRS/98
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