474
FXUS64 KCRP 161547
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
947 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WINDS AT A COUPLE SITES HAVE HOVERED AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS
SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RETURN TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER TODAY; WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING PLEASANT RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. WEAK WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH
THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH TEXAS FROM
MCMULLEN TO VICTORIA. ELSEWHERE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY
ADVECTING A WARMER AIRMASS AND BEGINNING ANOTHER WARMING TREND. AS
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
- POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES OF 27-34 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
- GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
ONE MINOR DIFFERENCE IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THAT THE FRONT IS
NOW PROGGED TO MOVE IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, RATHER THAN
SOUTHEAST. THIS PLACES THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FROM COT
TO VCT BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
BY A FEW HOURS, BUT OVERALL THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BLAST SOUTHWARD
ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, A WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND ALONG THE COAST, TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF S TX. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK ACROSS S TX, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
S TX.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROG AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS S TX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL
PLAINS TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THESE COMBINED FEATURES WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FEATURE THAT WILL INHIBIT DEEPER CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING WILL BE
A DRY MID LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION.
THE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA, THUS THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT
AREA AND LESS THAN 10% ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF S TX. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH S TX. THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS A DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO S TX.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 DEGREES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LOW DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA. AS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOW MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
SMALL DIFFERENCE MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES WILL BE ACROSS S TX. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH (60-80%) CHANCE OF BELOW 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND A MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-70%) CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES HAS
LOWERED TO 30-60% ACROSS THE NORTH CWA AND 15-30% ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THAT THESE ARE DAYS 4/5, LATER RUNS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL
SITES. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES WITH
GUSTS TO 26-30 KNOTS WHILE THE WESTERN SITES WILL SEE ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AROUND 18-22Z AND REMAIN LIGHT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DECREASING UNDER 20 KNOTS BUT THIS EVENING. THEREFORE,
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL THIS EVENING. WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY. A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG TO VERY
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
(25-70%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WITH RAIN ENDING IN ITS WAKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 63 41 71 60 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 59 34 70 56 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 68 41 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 64 37 73 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 62 45 70 62 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 66 36 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 64 39 72 58 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 61 48 68 63 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...JCP/84
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