115
FXUS64 KCRP 162329
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
529 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TAPERING OFF AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING. THE NEAR SURFACE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE WARM AND QUIET CONDITONS IN THE REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TONIGHT INTO THE 30S AND 40S AS THE
WINDS CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THANKS TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP IN PLACE WE COULD SOME AREAS (MAINLY THE DRAINAGE AREAS AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS) DROP JUST BELOW OR RIGHT AT FREEZING. THIS
SHOULD ONLY BE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR DAYBREAK, THEREFORE THE
DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS
AT THIS TIME. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO ONLY ALLOW LOWS TO COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY
- GALE CONDITIONS AND WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS CANADIAN LOW WILL SEND A
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR SOME OF
THE COLD ARCTIC AIR TO INFILTRATE SOUTH TEXAS. A TROUGH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH
CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE REGION TO GET SOME RAIN.
PRECIPITATION: THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER
THEREFORE THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY HAS A LOW (35-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS INCLUDING A PRETTY LOW (10-20%)
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE WATERS.
TEMPERATURES: HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM START OUT IN THE
70S TO 80S TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH FREEZING A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE NBM ENSEMBLE HAS A SWATH OF
UPPER 20S OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXCLUDING THE ISLANDS
WHERE LOW 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING LINE
WILL SAG EARLY THURSDAY. THE 90TH PERCENTILE HAS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES FROM MCMULLEN EAST TO VICTORIA. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE
NBM HAS A COLD BIAS BASED ON THE RECENT COLD SNAP AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT HOW FAR TEMPERATURES DROP
DEPENDING ON SKY COVERAGE.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERE'S A LOW TO MODERATE (15-35%) CHANCE FOR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, COASTAL PLAINS AND THE
COASTAL BEND WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH. THERE'S A LOW TO
MODERATE (20-45%) CHANCE FOR THE ISLANDS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE.
TODAY'S GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN, WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW MVFR CLOUDS AROUND CRP MONDAY MORNING AS THESE WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION, SO A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED FROM 12Z TO 14Z TO ILLUSTRATE THIS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
FLOW HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEAK TO
MODERATE BEGINNING WITH THE NEARSHORES AND BAYS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS TONIGHT. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS/BAYS AND A MODERATE (45-65%) CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT. THERE'S ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 41 69 59 79 / 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 35 68 56 78 / 0 0 0 40
LAREDO 42 71 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 39 70 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 45 69 62 74 / 0 0 0 20
COTULLA 38 71 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 41 72 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 49 67 62 72 / 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ270-275.
SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...KRS/98
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