455
FXUS64 KCRP 171652
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1052 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS, WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED INTO SOUTH TEXAS
WHICH WILL WARM US UP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP FURTHER FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST TUESDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. UNFORTUNATELY, IT
APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY WILL MISS OUT ON
RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
- GALE CONDITIONS AND WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY
- WIND CHILL VALUES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WED NIGHT/THU
AM
SIMILAR TO OUR FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, BOTH THE GEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE DONE THEIR OWN ROLLER COASTER RIDE FROM RUN TO
RUN. WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THESE ENSEMBLES, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN
TRENDING COLDER FROM THEIR 18Z INITIALIZATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
NBM MEAN IS NOW CLOSER TO THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, LEADING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOWER
PERCENTILES MAY CAPTURE THE QUICK, ARCTIC BLAST BETTER THAN GUIDANCE
NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE. AS SUCH, GAVE THE NBM25 SOME MORE WEIGHT
WHEN BLENDING GUIDANCE WED AM THRU FRIDAY. NOW THIS STILL DOESN'T
RAISE CONFIDENCE TOO MUCH AS THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IN HOW
COLD WE GET WILL BE WHAT THE CLOUDS DO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
AM.
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS: WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ALREADY BE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AM, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW
NORMAL (AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S). 10 TO 15 MPH N/NE'LY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AM, IN COMBINATION WITH AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S-30S, WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. GIVEN THAT THESE
FRIGID WIND CHILLS ARE 72HRS AWAY, WE ARE STILL IN THE MONITORING
PHASE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION: WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN GREATEST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST,
MEANING AREAS IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION (20-40% CHANCE). AS
THE FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTH, SO TOO WILL ANY REMAINING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKING IT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO THE
COASTAL BEND. THE CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A 24-HR
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY IS GREATEST ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES (30-50%
CHANCE), DECREASING THE FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES.
WIND: WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE'S A LOW TO MODERATE (15-35%) CHANCE FOR WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, COASTAL PLAINS
AND THE COASTAL BEND WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH. THERE'S A
LOW TO MODERATE (20-45%) CHANCE FOR THE ISLANDS TO REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS BEFORE DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO VEER THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SETTLING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO LOW TO MODERATE
LEVELS AND REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL VEER TO THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STRONG
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS/BAYS AND A MODERATE (45-65%)
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT. THERE'S
ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 59 78 41 / 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 63 55 77 36 / 0 10 50 40
LAREDO 70 59 82 44 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 67 57 82 40 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 64 60 73 40 / 0 0 20 20
COTULLA 67 56 81 40 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 68 58 80 41 / 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 64 62 72 43 / 0 0 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...LS/77/EY
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