013
FXUS64 KCRP 172351
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
551 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WIND CHILLS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- LOW (~20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-70S TO LOW-80S AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
GUIDANCE IS STILL A LITTLE NEBULOUS ON THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL, WITH
THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM, AND THE ECMWF EVEN FASTER THAN
THE GFS. REGARDLESS, ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
(OR NEARLY THROUGH) THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, BUT MOST OF THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, SO CONFIDENCE IN
ANY THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS
COLD, DRY AIR STREAMS INTO THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID-30S
TO MID-40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS
DIPPING AS LOW AS 25 FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WILL HOVER AROUND 50 WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE THURSDAY, WITH EARLY
MORNING LOWS RANGING IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY, RETURNING ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
A MODERATE (25-55%) CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. THESE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, LEAVING US DRY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HOVERING AROUND 12 KNOTS RIGHT NOW WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR/IFR
WIDESPREAD 12-18Z WITH GREATER CHANCES OF LIFR WEST, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING COT/LRD. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING 2-4SM VSBYS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS, MAINLY FROM 12-16Z. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
REINTRODUCED OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IN THE MORNING, WITH
GREATEST CHANCES JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WORTHY OF INCLUDING A PREVAILING VCSH OVER VCT.
CONFIDENCE AND CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY SITES
WESTWARD AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT. A GALE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT
TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH WEDNESDAY AS STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY VERY
STRONG WINDS DEVELOP. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 58 78 41 53 / 0 20 10 0
VICTORIA 56 77 36 50 / 0 50 30 0
LAREDO 57 81 43 51 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 56 82 40 54 / 0 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 61 74 41 53 / 0 30 20 0
COTULLA 55 80 39 52 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 57 80 41 54 / 0 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 62 72 43 53 / 0 20 20 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...EMF/94
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