422
FXUS64 KCRP 181150
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
- GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY, A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND ALONG THE COAST, TO
THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF S TX. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY BACK ACROSS S TX, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF S TX.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROG AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS S TX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TODAY. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL
PLAINS TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THESE COMBINED FEATURES WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE
WEAKEST. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, THE CAP IS PROGGED TO BE MUCH
STRONGER WITH A DRY MID LAYER ALOFT. MAINLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED,
BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS DUE TO THE WEAKER CAP. CHANCES ARE BETTER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE.
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND LESS THAN 10% ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF S TX.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH S TX. THE RAIN CHANCES
SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF A LOW
(10-20%) CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. RAIN
CHANCES END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO S TX.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 DEGREES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LOW DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA, BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO
WIND CHILLS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
25-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP AS LOW AS THE TEENS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
- A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH, SETTING UP A CLASSIC
COLD-AIR DAMMING PATTERN FOR THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
RANGE AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE BIGGEST FACTOR TO HOW COLD SOUTH
TEXAS GETS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SKY COVERAGE. NBM GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS HAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING,
EVEN WITH N/NE'LY WINDS AT 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, THE
NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK (50-70% CHANCE) AND DROPPING AS LOW AS 20-40% CLOSER
TO THE RGV. FOR THIS REASON, WE'VE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE AIR TEMPERATURE, IN COMBINATION WITH THE WIND, WILL ALSO LEAD TO
BITTER WIND CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, DROPPING
AS LOW AS THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY AND
INTO THE 20S FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE/BARRIER ISLANDS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS MORE
IMPACTFUL HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST
PACKAGE AFTER SEEING HOW THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS HANDLE THE AIRMASS
POST-FROPA. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK, SO THE JACKETS WILL STILL BE NEEDED FOR
THOSE WORKING OUTDOORS.
FROM FRIDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL SET THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND THE OPEN WATERS FOR AN ISENTROPIC RUNNING
PATTERN, ALLOWING FOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE CHANCE FOR A 24-HR
ACCUMULATION OF A TENTH OF AN INCH RANGES FROM 50-70% ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OPEN WATERS, REDUCING TO A 20-30% CHANCE
FURTHER INLAND (FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY-SAT NIGHT). BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, THIS RUNNING PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN,
SHUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. AT
THIS TIME, THE RUNNING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK, PREVENTING THE CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
BY THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S. WHEW!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
COT AND VCT ARE BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF S TX IS CURRENTLY VFR, BUT THAT WILL ALSO
LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS S TX. MODELS INDICATE THAT CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%)CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ACROSS THE VCT
AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CRP. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EAST. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS S TX TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO COT AND VCT
BETWEEN 01-03Z AND LRD, ALI AND CRP BETWEEN 04-06Z TONIGHT. STRONG
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG TO
VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE
CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING IN ITS WAKE. STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A MINIMUM OF 6-8 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE OPEN
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE'S ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE
(60-80% CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMING MORE MODERATE TO
STRONG. BY SUNDAY, OFFSHORE FLOW REDUCES TO MORE WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 39 52 30 / 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 76 34 48 25 / 40 40 0 0
LAREDO 81 41 53 34 / 0 10 10 0
ALICE 81 38 51 29 / 0 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 73 40 53 31 / 20 30 0 0
COTULLA 81 37 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 79 39 52 31 / 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 72 41 52 34 / 10 20 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...TE/81
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