109
FXUS64 KCRP 190451
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1051 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
- GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVER THE REGION, A COLD FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT OVER NORTH TEXAS,
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY, AND OUT INTO WEST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO SE TEXAS, AND OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF. WARM, HUMID AIR IS FLOWING IN FROM THE
GULF, WHICH HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND
THE COASTAL BEND. FOR THIS EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CROSSING THE BRUSH COUNTRY, AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS, PASSING OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND OUT INTO THE
GULF BY MIDNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDER, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, IF ANYTHING GETS GOING. SPC HAS A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOK NORTH OF A LINE FROM CRP TO BEA, AND THE MARGINAL
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PORT O'CONNOR TO EDNA. HAIL LOOKS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING HAPPENS. OTHERWISE, THE FRONT WILL
POWER THROUGH THE REGION, AND PRETTY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS, WHICH SETS UP GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF, WINDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH GET GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT SO HAVE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ISLANDS AS THE WINDS PICK UP SPEED OVER THE GULF. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WINDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT, ALLOWING THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE, AND THE GALES TO
TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT OVER THE WATERS.
THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO MAKE ITS APPEARANCE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE LOWS
GETTING TO THE LOWER 30S IN PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS,
WITH THE MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THURSDAY, THE COLD AIR CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS THE COLD
AIR OOZES SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50°F OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS, HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30°F WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL BE IN THE MID
20S, WHILE THE REST OF THE COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20 TO LOWER 30S, BUT EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING
- WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY MORNING
- A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE.
WE'LL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST, WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY AND
INCREASE INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY SUNDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL LEAD TO SOME OVER-
RUNNING, INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY,
GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS WELL AS
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FREEZING
POTENTIAL VS THE PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY ICE THAT DEVELOPS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THIS COULD HAPPEN, BUT WE WOULD BE
REMISS IN NOT MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL.
TO BE CLEAR, THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE ALMOST ZERO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT, IF PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT, SOME WET SPOTS MAY FREEZE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OVER-RUNNING BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAKING THIS COLD WEATHER SEEM LIKE A FORGOTTEN MEMORY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION HEADING
TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT
CRP/ALI BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS DONE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ANY TERMINAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AT SOME
SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. A STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 2
AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS 35 TO 40
KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING IN ITS WAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY SUNDAY.
A MODERATE TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 38 51 28 46 / 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 34 49 24 46 / 50 0 0 0
LAREDO 40 53 31 45 / 10 10 0 0
ALICE 37 52 27 45 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 39 52 30 47 / 30 0 0 0
COTULLA 35 53 28 47 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 38 52 29 45 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 40 51 33 47 / 20 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ345-347-442-
443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ231.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ232-236-237-
250-255.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ232-236-237-
250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...BF/80
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