743
FXUS64 KCRP 190911
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
311 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDY, CLOUDY AND COLD TODAY.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- WIND CHILLS 20-30 DEGREES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS 16-25 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND
BAYS UNTIL 1 PM WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH S TX OVERNIGHT, HAS
LED TO WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS IN IT'S WAKE. WIND CHILLS BY
SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20-30 DEGREES. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25 DEGREES,
UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY DIP DOWN
TO AROUND 32 DEGREES IN A FEW LOW DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SKIES
BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT A VERY COLD AIRMASS INTO S TX.
TONIGHT'S LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 AREA WIDE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF S TX EXCEPT THE ISLANDS. THE
ISLANDS MAY ALSO SEE TEMPS AROUND 32 DEGREES BRIEFLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE 'FEEL LIKE' APPARENT TEMPERATURES
(WIND CHILL) OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE TEMPS WILL FEEL
LIKE THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AS WELL.
THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS RETURN NORTHWARD. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10
MPH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WESTERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND.
- NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES LEADING TO LOW CHANCES (<20%) OF ICE
DEVELOPING ON ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS NORTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY/VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
- WARM UP TREND FROM MONDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY MID-WEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL EXTEND ITS
AXIS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, INITIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS AND OFFSHORE PADRE ISLAND. BY
FRIDAY MORNING, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BLESS OUR COASTAL ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS. WE WILL RINSE AND REPEAT
THIS COLD AND DAMP FEBRUARY DAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS, THE PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A QUARTER-INCH FOR THE
COASTAL BEND AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IS MODERATE TO HIGH (50-
70%), DECREASING TO 10-30% CHANCE FOR INLAND AREAS. THE BARRIER
ISLANDS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING HALF-INCH
ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS THRESHOLD IS LOWER (30-
50% CHANCE).
TEMPERATURE-WISE (AND THUS, PRECIPITATION TYPE-WISE), LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, DROPPING
AS LOW AS THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY. THE PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW THE 32F, PER THE
NBM, HAS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (50-70%). WIND CHILL-WISE, FRIDAY
MORNING'S VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO THE
LOW 30S. ANY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THAT MOVES THROUGH THESE REGIONS
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF PRIMARILY REMAINING AS RAIN, THOUGH ANY WET
SPOTS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. SUFFICIENT WARMING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY WILL KEEP
ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THESE VALUES. ANY PRE-TREATED SURFACES WILL PROVIDE
BETTER ASSURANCE OF ANY BLACK ICE FORMING. CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED IF DRIVING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FROM SATURDAY, THE 500 HPA PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL KEEP INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR-AVERAGE
VALUES ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION HEADING
TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT
CRP/ALI BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS DONE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ANY TERMINAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AT SOME
SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR FREQUENT GUSTS 35
TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS BRING
SEAS BACK TO 6 TO 8 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY SUNDAY. A MODERATE
TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
TO SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON
MONDAY, INCREASING TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 48 28 47 38 / 10 0 0 10
VICTORIA 47 25 47 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 50 30 47 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 50 26 45 36 / 10 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 50 30 47 39 / 10 0 0 10
COTULLA 50 27 47 35 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 49 28 46 37 / 10 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 49 32 49 41 / 10 0 0 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ230>234.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ232>234-
242>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ232-236-237-
250-255-270-275.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR GMZ232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...BF/80
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