030
FXUS64 KCRP 192122
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
322 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD NIGHT AHEAD TONIGHT. FREEZE WARNING, EXTREME COLD
WARNING, AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT'S FRONT. A DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS MAINTAINED DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST AND OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FREEZE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 10 AM
THURSDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY COLD AS WELL, AS WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR 10 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THEREFORE, AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MCMULLEN TO VICTORIA
COUNTY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS, WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. BOTH THE EXTREME COLD WARNING AND
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL MATCH THE TIMING OF THE FREEZE
WARNING, BEING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING. REMEMBER, THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
HYPOTHERMIA. THEREFORE, BE PREPARE TO PROTECT YOURSELF, YOUR
FAMILY, PETS, AND PLANTS!
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 40S AREAWIDE. WINDS AT 850 MB WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ONSHORE
TOMORROW NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION. AS
A RESULT, LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT STILL
AT OR NEAR FREEZING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS, LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S RANGE.
RAIN CHANCES INLAND WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10% THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BUT WILL BE AT AROUND 20-50% OVER THE MARINE ZONES IN THE PROXIMITY
OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WESTERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COLD WIND CHILL VALUES
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WARM UP TREND FROM MONDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY MID-WEEK.
WE'LL STILL BE STUCK IN THIS COLD AIRMASS AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. INSTEAD OF SEEING AN IMPROVEMENT FOR FRIDAY, WE'LL
LIKELY GO DOWN HILL A BIT AS WE INCREASE WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH AND RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY SOUTH), IT WILL BE A PRETTY
UNPLEASANT DAY (WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S). ANY CHANCE OF
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION ARE VERY MINIMAL (<10%) WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE PROFILES NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY FROZEN HYDROMETEORS ABOVE THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH A BIT LESS WIND, BUT
WE'LL KEEP (AND INCREASE) THE RAIN CHANCES AS A COASTAL TROUGH (AND
POSSIBLY SURFACE LOW) STRENGTHENS ALONG THE GULF COAST. ISENTROPIC
LIFT PATTERN IS IN FULL FORCE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW, WITH AROUND
OR BELOW 0.25" MOST LIKELY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WEEK A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH, HELPING TO KICK OUT THE SURFACE FEATURE AND BEGINNING OUR
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. HOPEFULLY YOU WEREN'T READY TO
BE OFF THE TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER, BECAUSE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WE'RE ON A STEEP INCLINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 80S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN NEAR 90 WEST! WE'LL BE MAINLY DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE A FULL RETURN TO VFR
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS BRING SEAS BACK TO 6 TO 8
FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY SUNDAY. A MODERATE TO HIGH (40-80%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
MORNING. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY,
INCREASING TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 27 45 37 48 / 0 0 10 40
VICTORIA 24 46 33 45 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 30 46 37 43 / 0 0 0 30
ALICE 26 44 34 45 / 0 0 0 50
ROCKPORT 28 47 38 50 / 0 0 0 30
COTULLA 27 46 34 43 / 0 0 0 20
KINGSVILLE 26 44 36 46 / 0 0 10 60
NAVY CORPUS 31 47 41 52 / 0 0 20 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ229-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ230>234.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ232-236-237-
250-255-270-275.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ232-236-237-
250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...ANM/88
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