808
FXUS64 KCRP 201744
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1144 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXTREME COLD AND FREEZE WARNING REMAIN VALID THROUGH 10 AM CST
- COASTAL TROUGH INCREASES CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IS STARTING
TO BREAK UP ALONG THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS ENTRAINING SOME DRIER AIR. LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR
HAVE THE BEST PROBABILITIES OF AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 25
DEGREES (30-50% CHANCE NEAR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS/NORTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY), AND AS SUCH, WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST WIND
CHILLS (DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS). ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE STILL BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS. THESE FRIGID AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MID- MORNING, BEFORE CLIMBING
BACK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE EXTREME COLD AND FREEZE WARNINGS, BOTH EXPIRING
AT 10 AM CST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS SUPPORTED THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR NEXT FOCUS: RAINFALL. MOST OF TODAY'S
SHOWERS BEGIN IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, HREF
MEMBERS ARE LATCHING ON TO A SURGE OF SHOWERS COMING NORTH FROM THE
RGV BRINGING THE GREATEST POPS TO THE KLEBERG ISLANDS FROM TONIGHT,
AND THEN SPREADING AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY. THE CLOSER YOU ARE TO THE
COAST, THE GREATER YOUR CHANCES FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (NEARING
A QUARTER-INCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF NUECES COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON). TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING
(GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-30S). NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTED SOME
WINTRY MIX IN NORTHERN GOLIAD/BEE/LIVE OAK COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. HREF SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER LOW- LEVELS, PROMPTING ME TO
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS RAIN. ANY REFLECTIVITY SEEN IN
THIS AREA WILL VERY LIKELY EXPERIENCE VIRGA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
-SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
-WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY.
-WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NE FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THIS SETUP WILL
FOSTER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. CONSEQUENTLY A DREARY SATURDAY CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH WELL-
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES (ONLY IN THE 40S), ABUNDANT LOW-LVL
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE (> 0.1
INCH) RAINFALL TOTALS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE CONSENSUS FOR RAIN (PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA) IS FAIRLY HIGH, RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN EXPECTED AT THIS SHORT LEAD TIME. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE EURO/EPS WHICH DEPICT A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER-MOVING SHORTWAVE, AND CONSEQUENTLY FORECASTS
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SOLUTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER, AND THUS THE CURRENT QPF REFLECTS THE NON-EURO CONSENSUS
WHICH TRANSLATES TO ABOUT 0.25 INCHES OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS DECREASING SOUTHWESTWARD.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS BOTH THE MID-LVL WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.
ASSUMING THE SLOWER (AND THUS COLDER) EC SOLUTION DOESN'T VERIFY, A
FAIRLY NOTICEABLE WARM-UP IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S, AND CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH WARM
SOUTHEASTERLY DEVELOPING OVER ITS WESTERN FLANK. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE 80S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING FROM THE 40S ON
MONDAY MORNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS, BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON, REMAINING BELOW 12
KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ABOVE 12 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08-14Z FRIDAY AT ALI/CRP/VCT SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS SEAS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
GENTLE SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK. HIGH (60-80%) RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 43 35 48 39 / 0 20 40 40
VICTORIA 42 32 45 36 / 0 20 20 10
LAREDO 44 35 43 36 / 0 0 40 40
ALICE 43 33 45 36 / 0 30 50 40
ROCKPORT 44 36 50 40 / 0 20 30 30
COTULLA 43 33 43 35 / 0 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 43 34 46 37 / 0 30 60 40
NAVY CORPUS 45 40 52 44 / 0 30 60 50
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....NC/91
AVIATION...ANM/88
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