083
FXUS64 KCRP 202230
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.
- LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
THE BRUSH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT AHEAD FOR SOUTH TEXAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S. A FREEZE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
INLAND ZONES, WHILE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH NOON
FRIDAY.
AS EARLIER ADVERTISED, A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
MAKING ITS TRANSITION INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH
MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE REGION. WINDS AT 850 MB WILL
VEER AND BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INLAND WILL REMAIN AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS (20-50%), IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THOSE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING, PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON SUCH OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW (LESS
THAN 20%) AT THIS TIME, AS PER LATEST MODEL RUNS, MOISTURE MAY
TAKE A SLIGHTLY LONGER RETURN TIME. NOW, IF CONDITIONS CHANGE
OVERNIGHT, WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH WOULD HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING PRECIP OCCURRENCE. HAVING SAID
THAT, EVEN IF THAT SCENARIO PANS OUT, LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS, ROADS, AND ESPECIALLY
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS, SO PLAN ON
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AND DROP AGAIN TO NEAR FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD COME INTO PLAY TOMORROW
NIGHT. THEREFORE, WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO STAY ALERT WITH THE
LATEST UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NE FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THIS SETUP WILL
FOSTER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. CONSEQUENTLY A DREARY SATURDAY CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH WELL-
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES (MID 40S TO LOW 50S), ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE (> 0.1
INCH) RAINFALL TOTALS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH POPS RANGING AROUND 40-60%, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OUT WEST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS BOTH THE MID-LVL WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.
A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE WARM-UP IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S, AND CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH WARM SOUTHEASTERLY DEVELOPING OVER ITS WESTERN FLANK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 80S, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WARMING FROM THE 40S ON MONDAY MORNING TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS, BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON, REMAINING BELOW 12
KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ABOVE 12 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08-14Z FRIDAY AT ALI/CRP/VCT SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, STRONG WINDS
BRING SEAS BACK TO 6 TO 8 FT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BECOMING ONSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 35 42 37 51 / 20 30 40 60
VICTORIA 31 40 35 51 / 0 10 20 50
LAREDO 34 39 35 47 / 10 30 40 20
ALICE 33 39 33 48 / 20 40 40 60
ROCKPORT 36 46 37 55 / 10 20 30 60
COTULLA 33 40 34 48 / 0 20 20 30
KINGSVILLE 33 39 34 48 / 20 40 50 60
NAVY CORPUS 39 48 42 54 / 20 40 50 70
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ229>234-239>244-246-247.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>244-246-247.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...ANM/88
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page