123
FXUS64 KCRP 212340
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
540 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
A TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH DRIZZLE/RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AND STILL SOME QUESTION IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
INLAND.
HAVE SEEN A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING OF THE SURFACE LAYER TODAY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THOUGH, STILL HAVE SOME DRIER
AIR. A FEW DIFFERENT TRAINS OF THOUGHT WITH THIS... 1) IT'S STILL
DRY, SO POPS ARE LOWER HERE, AT LEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. 2) THE
THICK CLOUD COVER KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S - AND DONT SEE MUCH REASON
TO THINK IT'LL BE DIFFERENT TONIGHT. 3) WE DID SEE SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SOUTH TODAY AS THE MOISTURE INCREASED, AND WE
COULD SEE THAT AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER MOISTENS NORTH TOO, BUT
LIKELY ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. ALL OF THESE TOGETHER
KEEPS ME LEANING TOWARD AN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH. WE WILL SEE A
STRENGTHENING OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FLOW TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW WITH MAINLY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AND PRETTY LOW QPF
NUMBERS (<0.10" INLAND AND <0.25" NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY). IF TEMPERATURES FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS, SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OBJECTS, BUT EXPECTING LARGELY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TO BE FALLING.
AFTER SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND END ANY CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO PULL AWAY THE
COASTAL TROUGH AS WELL AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE
GONE BELOW NBM GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE WITH THE
THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION - DAYTIME RECOVERY
SHOULD BE LIMITED. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
MINIMUM WIND CHILL WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S TONIGHT BUT
INCREASE INTO THE 30S SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
AS WE EMBARK ON THIS WEEK, A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (35-50%) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT KICKS DOWN. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN THERE AFTER
SPARKING A WARMING TREND IN THE REGION AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
PROMOTING WARMER CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL THANKFULLY
KEEP THINGS FROM BEING TO UNBEARABLE THIS WEEK, THOUGH EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BEGINNING MONDAY. ANOTHER POINT OF
INTEREST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK (THURSDAY). MODELS (GFS,ECMWF,CMC) HAVE
DEPICTED A FRONT CLEARING THE REGION THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS RUNS,
HOWEVER DURING THE LATEST RUNS, SOME MODELS HAVE EITHER REMOVED THE
FRONT OR WEAKENED IT SIGNIFICANTLY (GFS AND CMC). DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH. IT WILL BE MONITORED DURING FUTURE
FORECASTS. HIGHS OUT WEST WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90S AROUND MIDWEEK
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OUR HOTTEST DAY. OTHERWISE, WE CAN EXPECT QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CURRENTLY, ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, THE CIGS ARE RANGING FROM IFR AT
LRD TO VFR AT VCT. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH IFR TEMPO DURING SATURDAY AS
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LOW CHANCE
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT THE TAF SITES THEMSELVES (LRD/COT/ALI/CRP/VCT) ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, SO NO ICING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE,
MVFR/IFR CIGS, AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST 18
HOURS OF THE TAFS. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (20%) OF THUNDER
WITH THE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A FEW
STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING SUNDAY (50-80%). WEAK TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK BY MONDAY BEFORE
VEERING ONSHORE. WE COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE A FRONT AROUND MIDWEEK,
THOUGH GUIDANCE ISN'T IN AGREEMENT ON IF THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 36 43 40 63 / 30 60 40 20
VICTORIA 34 41 40 59 / 30 70 70 30
LAREDO 34 43 40 68 / 40 40 10 0
ALICE 35 43 40 63 / 40 50 30 10
ROCKPORT 36 44 41 60 / 30 60 70 30
COTULLA 33 43 40 68 / 40 50 10 0
KINGSVILLE 36 43 40 63 / 40 50 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 39 44 42 60 / 30 60 70 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...JSL/86
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