438
FXUS64 KCRP 261146
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH
NOON FRIDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTH
WIND USHER IN DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS S TX BEGINNING TODAY. AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN VIA SATELLITE, ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO DEEP S TX THIS MORNING. AS THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO S TX, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES BY LATER THIS MORNING.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION ERODING AWAY. THE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, HOWEVER SHEER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SATURATED PROFILE WITH 'SKINNY' CAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. THE
COMBINATION OF ALL OF THE FEATURES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND WIND TODAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT BY THURSDAY. THE
STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF S TX. THE RISK
INCREASES TO A SLIGHT ACROSS ALL OF S TX ON THURSDAY.
IN A NUTSHELL, THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, BRUSH COUNTRY MAY SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE HIGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 80-90% ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO 50-70% ACROSS THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS ALL OF S TX TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY UP TO 80-95%.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS RAIN EVENT HAVE INCREASED. TOTAL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE 4-7
INCHES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS UP TO 11 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND COASTAL BEND.
AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO
THE DRY SOIL CONDITIONS, LOW RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS, ALL BEING ABLE
TO SOAK UP THE RAIN. HOWEVER, HIGH RAINFALL RATES OVER URBAN AREAS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED PONDING OF ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING INCREASES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS,
SLIGHT RISK INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY, AND MARGINAL RISK ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. THE FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
ONCE THE RAINFALL ENDS, WE WILL MOVE BACK INTO A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID-
90S OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR THIS MORNING, MAINLY DUE TO CIGS, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE, GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CIGS AT TIMES. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 2-4) CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY,
THEN INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH
(30-60%) CHANCE BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND CHAOTIC SEAS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES.
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) WINDS WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 5-7
FEET WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE (BF 3- 4) SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET,
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE
TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 67 75 65 / 70 80 90 90
VICTORIA 83 64 74 64 / 50 80 90 90
LAREDO 83 68 80 65 / 90 90 90 70
ALICE 81 66 76 64 / 80 90 90 80
ROCKPORT 80 67 75 67 / 60 80 80 90
COTULLA 82 67 76 66 / 90 90 100 70
KINGSVILLE 82 66 76 64 / 80 80 90 80
NAVY CORPUS 75 68 73 65 / 70 80 80 90
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page