563
FXUS64 KCRP 270530
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1230 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT, INCREASING TO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WELL ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS HAS
BEGUN! LATEST RADAR ESTIMATES ARE INDICATING UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF LIVE OAK AND BEE COUNTIES
TODAY, WITH AROUND 0.10-1.0" ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THESE
DOWNPOURS HAVE MOVED OVER THE LOCAL RESERVOIRS, WHICH IS SOMETHING
OUR AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS ON HOW THIS EVENT WILL
PROGRESS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, OVERALL EXPECTING VARIOUS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN AT AROUND 70-90% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3-4 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY, 4-8 OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS, AND 8-
10 INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND OVER THE MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH
OUR SOILS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY DRY, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO
ARISE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THESE CELLS BEING SLOW MOVERS AND
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MAKERS. TRAINING STORMS OVER THE SAME
AREAS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40% CHANCE) OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA, AND A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOOD RISK, OUR AREA IS ALSO UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, AND A MARGINAL
TO SLIGHT RISK ON THURSDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH VARIOUS IMPULSES SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF IT AND COMBINING
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (PWATS ~1.6-1.9") AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MUCAPE VALUES 1500-2500 J/KG) TO CREATE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVY
RAIN AND CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY TOMORROW (2%
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE).
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW PREDICTED, THEREFORE HAVE BLENDED IN SOME WARMER
SOLUTIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS, AND COLDER SOLUTIONS FOR
THURSDAY'S HIGHS TO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE CONSTANT. LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AREAWIDE TOMORROW. THERE IS MODERATE RISK IF RIP CURRENTS ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES UNTIL NOON FRIDAY
- THEN DRYING OUT WITH A WARMING TREND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, BEFORE DOING SO, THERE
WILL STILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH VICTORIA
ON THE HIGHER END OF THOSE VALUES. IF SOILS ARE SATURATED, ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RUN-OFF AND THUS WE'LL STILL PLAN TO KEEP
THE FFA UP UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
ONCE THE RAINFALL ENDS, WE WILL MOVE BACK INTO A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID-90S OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY. UPPER 90S ARE
LIKELY OUT WEST BY MID WEEK AS A 590DM HIGH MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 100 DEGREES, BRINGING AN EARLY START TO THE
SUMMER HEAT!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH BRIEF BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN
DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR
PROGRESSION BASED ON LIKELY INTERACTIONS FROM OTHER CELLS. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE UNDER PREDOMINATELY MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH MVFR
CIGS. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING LULLS IN ACTIVITY. EXPECT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 8-15 KT FOR THURSDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 4) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND CHAOTIC SEAS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES. MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 4)
WITH WAVES 5-7 FEET WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO A GENTLE BREEZE (BF 3)
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (70-90%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 79 66 85 / 90 80 0 0
VICTORIA 64 78 64 85 / 90 90 10 0
LAREDO 66 85 68 95 / 80 30 0 0
ALICE 64 81 64 90 / 90 70 0 0
ROCKPORT 67 78 67 81 / 90 80 10 0
COTULLA 66 85 67 93 / 80 40 0 0
KINGSVILLE 65 80 65 88 / 90 70 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 67 74 67 77 / 90 80 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....JM/75
AVIATION...KRS/98
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