191
FXUS64 KCRP 270924
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON FRIDAY.
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BECOMING A
MARGINAL RISK FRIDAY.
A DEVELOPING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT 500
MB AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AROUND 1.70" (JUST BELOW THE 99TH PERCENTILE) IS LEADING
TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING EXPECTED.
EVEN WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER
AN INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCALES RECEIVING OVER 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF LIVE OAK, BEE AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES.
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
EVENING THERE'S A MODERATE (40%) PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 5 INCHES OF RAIN OUT FOR SOME AREAS OUT WEST, GENERALLY
WEST OF HWY 281. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR OVER 5
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 281. ALONG
THE COASTAL BEND, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS HAVE A LOW TO
MODERATE (15-30%) CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST 10 INCHES FALL ACROSS
AREAS.
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WPC (WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER) HAS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15% CHANCE) OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%
CHANCE) ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OR
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
AND/OR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE
REMEMBER FLOOD SAFETY, AVOID DRIVING OVER WATER COVERED ROADS AND
IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED IN YOUR AREA, SEEK HIGHER GROUND.
MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
VICTORIA COUNTY, IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK FRIDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TOMORROW WILL
HAVE MID 70S TO 80S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT WEST AS THE
SKIES START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER RESUMES
DRY WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER
INCREASE OUT WEST, NEARING 100 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
INTRODUCING A MODERATE HEAT RISK. REMEMBER--STAY HYDRATED, TAKE LOTS
OF BREAKS OUT OF THE HEAT, DRESS IN LIGHT, COOL CLOTHING, AND IT'S
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO GET THAT SUNSCREEN OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH BRIEF BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN
DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR
PROGRESSION BASED ON LIKELY INTERACTIONS FROM OTHER CELLS. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE UNDER PREDOMINATELY MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH MVFR
CIGS. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING LULLS IN ACTIVITY. EXPECT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 8-15 KT FOR THURSDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 4) TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH (70-90%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND CHAOTIC SEAS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES. MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 4)
WITH WAVES 5-7 FEET WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF3-4) WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO A GENTLE BREEZE (BF-3)
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 65 79 67 / 80 90 80 10
VICTORIA 72 63 77 66 / 90 90 90 30
LAREDO 77 66 83 67 / 90 70 40 0
ALICE 74 64 81 66 / 80 90 80 0
ROCKPORT 76 66 76 68 / 90 80 90 10
COTULLA 74 65 83 67 / 90 90 60 0
KINGSVILLE 76 64 80 66 / 80 90 80 0
NAVY CORPUS 73 66 75 68 / 90 90 80 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...KRS/98
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