683
FXUS64 KCRP 271756
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1256 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON FRIDAY.
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BECOMING A
MARGINAL RISK FRIDAY.
A DEVELOPING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT 500
MB AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AROUND 1.70" (JUST BELOW THE 99TH PERCENTILE) IS LEADING
TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING EXPECTED.
EVEN WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER
AN INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCALES RECEIVING OVER 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF LIVE OAK, BEE AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES.
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
EVENING THERE'S A MODERATE (40%) PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 5 INCHES OF RAIN OUT FOR SOME AREAS OUT WEST, GENERALLY
WEST OF HWY 281. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR OVER 5
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 281. ALONG
THE COASTAL BEND, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS HAVE A LOW TO
MODERATE (15-30%) CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST 10 INCHES FALL ACROSS
AREAS.
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WPC (WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER) HAS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15% CHANCE) OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%
CHANCE) ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OR
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
AND/OR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE
REMEMBER FLOOD SAFETY, AVOID DRIVING OVER WATER COVERED ROADS AND
IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED IN YOUR AREA, SEEK HIGHER GROUND.
MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
VICTORIA COUNTY, IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK FRIDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TOMORROW WILL
HAVE MID 70S TO 80S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT WEST AS THE
SKIES START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER RESUMES
DRY WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER
INCREASE OUT WEST, NEARING 100 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
INTRODUCING A MODERATE HEAT RISK. REMEMBER--STAY HYDRATED, TAKE LOTS
OF BREAKS OUT OF THE HEAT, DRESS IN LIGHT, COOL CLOTHING, AND IT'S
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO GET THAT SUNSCREEN OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ONGOING ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CYCLE
AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING PAST MIDNIGHT. HIGH RAIN CHANCES
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT SOME STRONG GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR OR AROUND ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES IMPACT THE SITES.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 4) TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH (70-90%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND CHAOTIC SEAS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES. MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 4)
WITH WAVES 5-7 FEET WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF3-4) WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO A GENTLE BREEZE (BF-3)
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 79 67 84 / 80 80 10 0
VICTORIA 63 77 66 83 / 80 80 30 0
LAREDO 66 83 67 92 / 80 40 0 0
ALICE 64 81 66 88 / 80 80 0 0
ROCKPORT 66 76 68 80 / 80 80 10 0
COTULLA 65 83 67 91 / 70 40 0 0
KINGSVILLE 64 80 66 87 / 80 80 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 66 75 68 77 / 80 80 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...ANM/88
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