796
FXUS64 KCRP 272319
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
619 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES;
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT/FRIDAY.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EAST TO
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD,
WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED TO IT PUSHING OVER OUR AREA. THIS, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.8" - ABOVE
THE 99TH PERCENTILE), WILL PROVIDE THE SETTING FOR VARIOUS
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO
RESOLVE THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT, OVERALL, ANTICIPATING AT LEAST
ONE MORE CONVECTIVE ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY
A BRIEF LULL AND ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND MOISTURE DRIFT EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH AT AROUND 70-90%, DECREASING TO A
30-70% DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AND TO 10-30% BY FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. STORM TOTALS UP TO ALMOST 8" ARE ESTIMATED TO
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF LIVE OAK AND BEE COUNTIES,
WHILE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA, WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (15-40%).
BASED ON LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS, SBCAPE VALUES ARE AT AROUND 500-1000
J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A BIT OF A CAP OVERHEAD. THE
STORMS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SEEM TO HAVE AID IN STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. SPC HAS LOWERED OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO A
MARGINAL RISK THROUGH FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, CONCERNS FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL ENHANCE OUR RIP CURRENTS RISK
TO HIGH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ON FRIDAY ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT OUR
CONCERNS, BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK IN EFFECT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY (DEPENDING ON
THE RAIN AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER RESUMES
BY SATURDAY, WE SEE THE RETURN OF MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US, KEEPING ALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS, AND ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S WEST OF US HWY 181, AND INTO THE UPPER
70S/MID 80S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS/EAST OF US HWY 181. LOWS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DROP INTO THE 60S. ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. WEDNESDAY, ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS WILL HAVE HIGHS ABOVE THE MID 80S, WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAVE A 50% TO 60% CHANCE OF SURPASSING 100F
DEGREES, WITH A 40 TO 50% CHANCE FOR THE SAME AREA ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS OCCURRING ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS, PERSISTING THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY
STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS EVENING,
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 05-07Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES RETURN JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERALL, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT SOME
STRONG GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR OR AROUND ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE (BF 5-6) WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A HIGH (70-90%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND CHAOTIC SEAS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES. MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 4)
WITH WAVES 5-8 FEET WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
(BF 3-4) WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO A
GENTLE BREEZE (BF 3) MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO FRESH
(BF 4-5) BREEZE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW TO
MODERATE (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 78 67 84 / 80 70 10 0
VICTORIA 63 77 65 84 / 80 80 30 10
LAREDO 66 83 67 92 / 80 40 0 0
ALICE 64 80 65 88 / 80 70 10 0
ROCKPORT 66 77 68 82 / 80 70 20 0
COTULLA 65 83 67 92 / 70 40 0 0
KINGSVILLE 64 80 66 86 / 80 70 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 66 75 68 77 / 80 70 20 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...KRS/98
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