508
FXUS64 KCRP 281103
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
603 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. WE WILL STILL HAVE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WHICH COULD BRING
ANOTHER 0.5-1" OF RAIN TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. WHILE WE DESPERATELY NEED THE RAIN, AS THE TROUGH
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORTUNATELY, WE WERE ABLE TO GET
SOME OF THIS WATER IN OUR WATERSHED WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
NUECES RIVER BASIN FROM 16.8% FULL TO AROUND 17.5%. OUR LOW WATER
LEVELS ARE NOT GONE AND WATER CONSERVATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
PRIORITY FOR US ALL, BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY BETTER NEWS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER,
MID-70S TO MID-80S, THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL HANG
AROUND MUCH OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FOR SATURDAY, LEADING
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW-90S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. IF THE SURF OR ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE, THERE IS THE
CHANCE THAT THIS COULD INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
REMEMBER, HOWEVER, THAT RIP CURRENTS CAN ALWAYS BE DANGEROUS.
PLEASE BE CAUTIOUS ON AREA BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER RETURNS.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM, OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY DISTURBANCES STAYING WELL
TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING IN TO OUR SOUTH OVER MEXICO
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE AIR COLUMN DRIES OUT, EXPECT
PWAT'S TO DIP TO THE 0.90-1.35" RANGE ACCORDING TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S TO 90S THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY COULD
SEE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL RANGE IN
THE 60S. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY AND
INCREASING AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WHILE RAIN HAS NOT COMPLETELY ENDED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, IT
CERTAINLY HAS CALMED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL STILL BE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THEY
WILL NOT BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
WEST/SOUTHWEST TURNING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVER THE BAYS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM THIS MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH. AN ONSHORE FRESH
TO STRONG (BF 5-6) BREEZE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY, THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5)BY LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) THIS WEEKEND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO A GENTLE BREEZE (BF 3) MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) BREEZE WILL THEN DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 68 84 69 / 60 10 0 0
VICTORIA 77 66 84 67 / 60 10 0 0
LAREDO 83 69 92 69 / 20 0 0 0
ALICE 79 66 88 66 / 70 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 76 69 80 70 / 60 10 0 0
COTULLA 80 67 91 69 / 40 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 81 67 87 67 / 60 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 69 78 69 / 60 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-
442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-
443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ250-
255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...LS/77
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