075
FXUS64 KCRP 300454
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1154 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ONE SHORT WAVE IS EXITING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER ONE
IS ON THE WAY. THIS ONE IS A BIT MORE SHALLOW AND NORTH OF THE
AREA, AND EXPECT ALL THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR AREA TOMORROW. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THOUGH! DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND
ARE NOT LIKELY TO DECREASE MUCH THROUGH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD - AT LEAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THESE DEWPOINTS, AND
NEARSHORE WATERS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S, IT IS LIKELY WE
SEE SEA FOG IN THE GULF WATERS AND ADVECTING INTO BAYS. WE MAY
NEED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVER THE
LAND, FOG IS A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH WINDS REMAINING A BIT
ELEVATED. WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THOUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL LOSE THE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW, BUT
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST A PARTIAL COVER.
AFTER A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S, HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. A WEAK DRY LINE WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR
EAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A VERY WEAK FRONT STRUGGLING TO EXTEND OVER SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY, WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE
DEEP WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DOMINATE OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT, THE NORTH AMERICA ENSEMBLE
FORECASTING SYSTEM (NAEFS) SHOWS 700-850MB TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY
OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THESE ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
REFLECT TOWARDS THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO
UPPER 90S WITH WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS PUSHING 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STARTING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
MONDAY NIGHT, INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 70S AREA WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY AND CHURN
OVER THE DESERT SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING PULSES
OF SHORTWAVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THESE PULSES MAY INTERACT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES > 1.5") AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
TO REINTRODUCE LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 10-30% INTO THE FORECAST
BEGINNING FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR LEVELS BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POOR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, BEFORE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT VCT). WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO RELAX,
WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THOSE LOW CEILINGS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE MARINE ZONES, AS WELL AS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE CYCLE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES AS A
BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE BAYS WITH A GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE. A MAINLY GENTLE BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT VARIABLE BREEZE WILL TRANSPIRE ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. A
MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE WILL RETURN TUESDAY, STRENGTHENING TO A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 70 84 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 68 80 67 87 / 0 10 0 0
LAREDO 70 92 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 68 88 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 70 79 69 85 / 0 10 0 0
COTULLA 71 91 65 96 / 0 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 69 88 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 77 69 81 / 0 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...ANM/88
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