131
FXUS64 KCRP 300723
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH HIGHER, WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MONDAY'S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY CLOSE
TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FORTUNATELY,A DRYLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 100. IT'S COMING
THOUGH, FOLKS.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. FOR NOW, WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR EITHER TIME FRAME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
UNDERSTANDING THAT IT WILL REALLY ONLY TAKE WINDS DROPPING JUST A
FEW MILES PER HOUR FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. MARINE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
HINTING AT DEVELOPING ALL NIGHT, SO EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG OUR
AREA BEACHES, THOUGH A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS MAY
BE TO OUR ADVANTAGE. THIS WILL MOST CERTAINLY HELP DIMINISH OUR
RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE WATERS FOR THIS. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO USE
CAUTION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPERATURES TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
A WEAK FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE AZ/MX BORDER.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE U.S.
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF PROMOTING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR OUR CWA. AROUND MID-WEEK, A DRYLINE
APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL
MAKE IT ACROSS THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
FROM THE DESERT SW LOW MAY INTERACT WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE, OVER SOUTH TEXAS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FINALLY, AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS
DOWN, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NEXT SUNDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT.
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 80S TO 90S TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GETTING UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DIP A FEW
DEGREES AND DIP AGAIN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY APPEARS
THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO 80S.
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S MONDAY NIGHT THEN WILL WARM INTO THE 70S
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN, AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES
WITH OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE, LOWS DROP INTO THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR LEVELS BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POOR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, BEFORE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT VCT). WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO RELAX,
WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THOSE LOW CEILINGS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE MARINE ZONES, AS WELL AS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE CYCLE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES AS A
BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM TODAY. SEA FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3/4) SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2/3) MONDAY AS THEY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO
WEST ALONG A BOUNDARY. A LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF-2/3) EASTERLY BREEZE
LATE MONDAY WILL VEER SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TUESDAY BECOMING
STRONG (BF-6) SOUTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH (BF-4/5). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WATERS NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 69 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 82 68 88 61 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 91 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 88 67 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 81 70 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 90 67 95 66 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 88 68 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 79 70 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...ANM/88
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