969
FXUS64 KCRP 301946
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT TONIGHT
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S WHILE
ONLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A DRYLINE IS GOING TO ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
MONDAY, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT STALLING JUST AS IT
ENTERS THE NORTHWEST BRUSH COUNTRY BEFORE RETREATING. WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ADDED HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 101 DEGREES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHILE THE BRUSH COUNTRY
REMAINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS, VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. VISIBILITIES OVER LAND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS AND 1 NM OR LESS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT ONSET TIME OF THE FOG,
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
DIFFERING TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CHANCE (70-90%) OF AT LEAST 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AS A DRYLINE PASSES THROUGH
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
AMPLIFY AND SAG FURTHER SOUTHWARD, DEVELOPING A CUTOFF MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST EAST OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WAA THROUGH ALL LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
(75TH PERCENTILE), A STOUT CAP WILL PROHIBIT MENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF MID-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS EVIDENT
BY CLUSTER ANALYSIS. MAJORITY OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES KEEP THE LOW
RATHER STATIONARY FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE DESERT SW CONUS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE GFS FOLLOWS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION, JUST LAGGING BEHIND. IN EITHER CASE, AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, EITHER
SATURDAY (ECMWF) OR SUNDAY (GFS). THEREFORE, LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-
35%) RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH, AND EMBEDDED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES PROTRUDING FROM THE TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REGULARLY RANGE FROM THE 80S WELL INTO THE
90S, WITH A HIGH CHANCE (70-90%) OF REACHING 100 DEGREES OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BRIEF PASSAGE OF A
DRYLINE. LOWS WILL CONSISTENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A MIXTURE OF CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE
FROM VFR TO LIFR. FOR THE GOOD NEWS, A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BAD NEWS,
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SITES
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES, WHICH COULD ONLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
HAZY/LIGHT FOG.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF-3/4) WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DECREASING TO
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF-2/3) LEVELS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DENSE FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE BAYS AND
WATERWAYS AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE WILL
RETURN TUESDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WITH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES REMAINING IN THE BOTTOM 50TH
PERCENTILE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN THE 25-40%
RANGE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND ABOVE 50% OVER THE EASTERN HALF OS
SOUTH TEXAS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL INTRUDE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND A LOWER CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON;
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 20-30%
DURING THESE TIMES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
MOISTURE INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 90 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 69 88 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 68 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 67 94 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 70 85 69 82 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 68 98 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 69 93 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 80 70 78 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...JCP/84
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