499
FXUS64 KCRP 310714
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
214 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS TODAY, SHIFTING OUR
LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TONIGHT. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE FLOW FOR
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE LIKE
SUMMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND REACHING INTO
THE MID-90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. TODAY'S BOUNDARY WILL HELP
TO REGULATE OUR HUMIDITY LEVELS, LIMITING HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE MID-90S. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWER TO
REACH THE INLAND COASTAL BEND AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS
WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THINGS
WILL BE FLIPPED FOR TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES (NEAR
100) OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND THE LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS (UPPER 90S).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CHANCE (75-95%) OF AT LEAST 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AS A DRYLINE PASSES THROUGH
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT
A 500 MB QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS WILL PROMOTE A DRY
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY, PULLING IN A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
MOISTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT
SW, IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK.
DESPITE SEVERAL IMPULSES COMING OFF THE LOW THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK,
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SLOWLY RAMP UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
WHEN THE MOISTURE FINALLY ARRIVES OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN INVERTED TROUGH. CURRENTLY,
HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND A LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
PWATS AROUND 1.30-1.5" ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LOW ACCUMULATION TOTALS; SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING HAZARDS
WITH THIS EVENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY GETTING UP TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OR HIGHER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY AND 90S
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WILL BE IN THE 80S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO 90S. LOWS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL DIP TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS
THE REGION. AFTER FROPA, LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY, HIGHS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DROP INTO THE 70S. LOWS WILL ALSO DROP, DOWN INTO THE
50S-60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FURTHER DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS DUE TO CAA, CLEARING SKIES AND A
NORTHERLY FLOW PROMOTING LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL HELP
WITH MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AT AREA TERMINALS WITH A MIXTURE OF IFR TO LIFR LEVELS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY EARLY MONDAY. A RETURN TO VFR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
AROUND MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE FOG FINALLY ERODES AND
THE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE CYCLE,
ALTHOUGH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE (BF 2/3) WILL SHIFT NORTH TODAY AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4/5)
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG
(BF 5/6) BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEN A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4/5)
BREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY
A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS. THERE ARE LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BOTTOM
50TH PERCENTILE. THIS, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25-40% RANGE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND ABOVE
50% OVER THE EASTERN HALF OS SOUTH TEXAS, WILL LIMIT THE FIRE
WEATHER DANGER THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL INTRUDE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND A LOWER CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON; AS A
RESULT, MINIMUM RH VALUES NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS INTO THE LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, 25-FOOT WINDS DURING THIS TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS, GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR
LESS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, LOW ERC VALUES IN THE 25TH-49TH PERCENTILE ARE
EXPECTED AND THEREFORE NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 70 84 72 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 88 64 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 96 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 93 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 85 69 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 97 68 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 91 70 89 72 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 80 70 77 72 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...ANM/88
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