944
FXUS64 KCRP 312030
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TUESDAY
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
A WEAK PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL
FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO WILL STRUGGLE TO PROGRESS
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, PUSHING THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTHWARD, ENHANCING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ALLOWING PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUD BASES TO FORM. THE FOG WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED
TO THE WATERS AND COASTAL BEND. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
TUESDAY, CREATING BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE
DAY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S TO MID
90S. THERE IS A MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
TUESDAY, EAST TO WEST RESPECTIVELY. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 45-50
KNOTS, PROHIBITING ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOST LOCATIONS WEST NEARING THE 100F MARK THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY AS
WELL AS INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD WEST TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A COASTAL TROUGH
ALL ALONG SOUTH TEXAS, IN TANDEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF, WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING
IN STRONG (BF 6) ONSHORE FLOW, WITH THOSE HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
AFFECTING THE BAYS NEAR THE BARRIER ISLANDS/COASTAL ZONES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES: HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SURPASSING THE 100F DEGREE MARK (80-90% CHANCE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE,
50-70% CHANCE IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY, WITH A SHARP GRADIENT JUST WEST
OF THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI). LAREDO HAS THE CHANCE TO TIE OR SET
A NEW RECORD ON WEDNESDAY (103F SET IN 1982). THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 90S (UPPER 80S ON THE ISLANDS AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS), WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SURPASSING THE CENTURY
MARK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY,
KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S REGION-WIDE. BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY, THE COLD-AIR ADVECTION REALLY STARTS INFLUENCING LOW-
LEVEL TEMPS, KEEPING OUR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
LOW TEMPERATURES: DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
WILL DETER HOW LOW OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING (GENERALLY IN THE 60S/70S). AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY MORNING'S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING'S LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION: MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE STATE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WON'T BE UNTIL SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE (UP TO
20% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION), AND EVEN GREATER CHANCES ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS IN SOUTH TEXAS AS
WE'LL BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM. THE GEFS STILL HAS QUITE THE
SPREAD AMONG IT'S MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO QPF, SO WE'LL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA OF TOTALS WITH THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING AND IMPROVING MVFR CONDITIONS TO VFR AS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS, SHIFTING
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, RETURNING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING A LOW
CEILING RISK. PRIMARILY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL
TEMPORARILY DROP TO LIFR OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, ESPECIALLY AT
ALI/CRP BETWEEN 06-12Z. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. A LIGHT TO
GENTLE ONSHORE BREEZE LATER TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4/5) THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 8 FEET. A SOUTH-TO-NORTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG ONSHORE WINDS (BF 6) AND
7-9 FEET WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO MORE
FRESH/STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE STRONG
OFFSHORE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WAVES
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 7-8 FT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
5-7 FT BY MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 70 84 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 63 83 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 72 95 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 68 90 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 70 82 72 85 / 0 10 0 0
COTULLA 70 94 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 69 88 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 78 72 83 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...EMF/94
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