122
FXUS64 KCRP 292337
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY
- MODERATE HEAT RISK IN THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
THE SLOW MOVING 500 MB TROUGH IN THE 4 CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. AS IT MOVES A SFC LOW
BEGINS TO SPIN UP WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT IS IN THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OFF OF THE BOUNDARY. THE NBM AND THE
MODELS MAINLY HAVE THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HILL COUNTRY,
BUT THERE A LOW CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LOOK TO RISE A BIT MORE, WITH
AREAS WEST OF SH-16 (TILDEN TO FREER TO HEBBRONVILLE) EXPECTED TO
AROUND 100°. SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE IN
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING, THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- STEAMY HEAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100F
- RAINY PATTERN BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
FROM THURSDAY, SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WILL DICTATE OUR PATTERN IN THE
LONGTERM. THE GREATEST ASCENT MOTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ON THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASED POPS FROM HILL COUNTRY DOWN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS LONGTERM
DISCUSSION, THE CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW AS IT IS
POSSIBLE THE GREATER DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN NORTH. THE 24-HR PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN
0.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING REMAINS LOW (<20% CHANCE).
BY FRIDAY, ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
AT THE BASE OF THE 500 HPA RIDGE WILL BE AIDED IN SYNOPTIC-SCALE
ASCENT BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
CONCURRENTLY, PWATS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS
INCREASING INTO THE 50-70& RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY WILL
FALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT ENOUGH QPF IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WPC
TO PLACE THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO RAPID
ONSET FLOODING).
SATURDAY, PWATS MAX OUT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (APPROACHING
1.8 INCHES) AND INCREASING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT SOUTH TEXAS.
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM STILL IN PLAY AND CONTINUED SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH, EFI IS SIGNALING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO FALL BETWEEN 00Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS
TEXAS, WITH THE RGV HAVING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. THIS ALSO PROMPTED WPC TO PLACE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AGAIN.
OVERALL, THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN GENERALLY
RANGES FROM 60-80% ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE 3 DAY PERIOD ENDING
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD, THE PROBABILITY FOR AT
LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL SHOWS MORE MODERATE PROBABILITIES (30-50%
CHANCE). FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD, 2 INCHES OR GREATER PROBABILITIES
MAX OUT ACROSS THE RGV, BUT REMAIN LOW IN THE FORECAST AREA (20-30%
CHANCE).
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S IN THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND NEARING THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTAL BEND, COMBINED
WITH HUMIDITY, WILL MAKE FOR A STEAMY START TO MAY. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES THIS WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 90S UNTIL CLOSER TO THE MID-WEEK OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS WILL BUILD IN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR
EASTERNMOST SITES, WITH OUR WESTERN SITES FORECAST TO LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR VSBYS
AT KVCT TO DROP TO AROUND 5SM BETWEEN 11-12Z, LASTING UNTIL ABOUT
14Z. A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED TO DENOTE THIS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING ALONGSIDE GUSTY WINDS,
SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, LOW CHANCES (<25%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY, MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS AS
LIMITED TAF SITE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE THIS EVENING, SO
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SEAS DECREASING FROM 5 FT TO 3-4 FT BY THIS WEEKEND
WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY MONDAY, ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO MODERATE TO
FRESH (BF 4-5) WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES AND 20-FT. WINDS MAY REACH
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY, THESE TWO FACTORS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OVERLAP.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NEGATING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO MEDIUM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 87 74 87 / 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 72 87 72 89 / 0 20 10 20
LAREDO 74 99 73 98 / 30 10 20 30
ALICE 73 93 72 92 / 0 20 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 86 75 86 / 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 98 72 97 / 10 20 20 30
KINGSVILLE 74 91 73 90 / 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 83 76 83 / 10 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...KRS/98
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