308
FXUS64 KCRP 301122
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
- MODERATE HEAT RISK IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY
A SLOW MOVING 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH TEXAS CWA EXTENDING RAIN CHANCES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A SFC
TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TO
THE GULF COAST, ACCOMPANIED BY THE TAIL END OF AN LLJ, HELPING TO
PROVIDE UPLIFT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A LOW (15-
20%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY, THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A BREAK AS A
LOW-LEVEL HIGH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE, BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. FINALLY,
EXPECT LOW TO MODERATE (15-35%) CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, AS INCREASED MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.
BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS STILL EXIST TODAY. WE HAVE A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4-6 FT. TODAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, MID 80S EAST TO AROUND 100 OUT WEST.
HEAT INDICES TODAY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL RANGE 100-105 DEGREES
AND THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HOVER AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S REGION-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAINY PATTERN BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLATED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE'RE JUST STARTING TO
GET INTO THE PERIOD WHERE SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WILL PICK
THIS UP, AND AT THIS TIME, MAINLY JUST THE FV3 IS SHOWING WHAT THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST, AND THAT IS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE IN THE EVENING AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD.
WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, SOME COULD GET INTO THE NORTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY. THAT SAID, OTHER HIGH RES MODELS - NAM, HRW AREN'T
SHOWING MUCH.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. QPF TOTALS HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH, BUT AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES, SOME HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THUS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STILL REMAINS MAINLY 0.5 TO 1", BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TOTALS NORTHWEST WHERE THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE. GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBS OF ABOVE 1" HAVE DECREASED FROM LAST NIGHTS GUIDANCE,
BUT OTHER ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTION A MEDIUM CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CUT BACK A NOTCH (AROUND 5 DEGREES) FROM THE
VERY WARM (HOT?) CONDITIONS THURSDAY, THEN FALL FARTHER - BACK INTO
THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL.
RIDGING BUILDS BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES, BUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME VFR BY 14-17Z. THIS IS
ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS AND
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT/THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
VCT/CRP/ALI. WINDS FOR LRD/COT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW 25% OR LESS WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT COT/LRD
TOMORROW AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THE FLOW
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY TO GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BY THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEAS DECREASING FROM 5 FT TO 3-4 FT BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MONDAY, ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO MODERATE
TO FRESH (BF 4-5) WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ELEVATED LEVELS TODAY. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NEGATING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO MEDIUM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 75 88 74 / 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 87 72 89 70 / 20 10 20 10
LAREDO 100 73 99 72 / 0 20 30 30
ALICE 94 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 85 75 86 75 / 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 72 97 71 / 10 20 30 40
KINGSVILLE 92 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 83 75 83 75 / 10 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...BF/80
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