846
FXUS64 KCRP 010537
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE HEAT RISK IN THE AFTERNOON.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE, THIS IS PUSHING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DALLAS METROPLEX. THIS MCS
STRUCTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD, WITH STORMS FORMING AND
PROPAGATING TO THE NORTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW INTENSE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE HOUSTON
METRO. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS MCS AND POPPING UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE OTHER HALF OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS THE SOUTHERN TAIL CONVECTION FIZZLING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE HWY 59 CORRIDOR, AND THUS REDUCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THURSDAY
MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, I HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR SUNRISE AND DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY MORNING.
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT IN A STRONGER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM, A FEW TENTHS OF RAINFALL IS NOT OUTSIDE THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DUE TO THE MOISTNESS OF THE GULF STAYING IN THE AREA, DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL KEEP OUR MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S (UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS). GIVEN THIS
HUMID AIRMASS, HEAT RISK WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTY AND TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
- SOGGY WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY
FRIDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SPLIT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST
AND IN THE GREAT LAKES, WITH RIDGING ALONG THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. BELOW ALL THIS, THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE
INCREASING INFLUENCE IN SOUTH TEXAS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
WIDESPREAD DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1
INCH FOR THE 3-DAY PERIOD ENDING SUNDAY MORNING GENERALLY IS LOW
TO MODERATE (30-50% CHANCE), POTENTIALLY MAKING FOR SOGGY CINCO DE
MAYO FESTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. PER THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE,
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
TRENDS. AS OF RIGHT NOW, WPC STILL HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY UNDER A MARGINAL THROUGH OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
THIS MARGINAL THREAT ON SATURDAY.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK,
WITH A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THE PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL BE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND HOW QUICKLY IT DOES SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATING THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND,
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 80S. BY THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK, HIGHS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S WHILE
REMAINING IN THE 80S IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR OUR EASTERNMOST SITES,
WITH OUR WESTERN SITES FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PATCHY FOG EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS, INCLUDING KALI AND KVCT. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO DENOTE
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING ALONGSIDE GUSTY WINDS,
SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, LOW CHANCES (20-40%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXIST THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF -SHRA FOR KVCT
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) TONIGHT LEADING TO SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
THURSDAY TO GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEAS DECREASING FROM 5 FT TO 3-4 FT BY
THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MONDAY, ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NEGATING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO MEDIUM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 87 71 81 / 10 10 50 60
VICTORIA 71 88 66 82 / 10 30 60 60
LAREDO 72 95 70 82 / 30 20 70 60
ALICE 72 92 69 82 / 10 10 60 60
ROCKPORT 75 86 71 83 / 10 10 60 70
COTULLA 71 94 69 82 / 30 30 70 40
KINGSVILLE 73 89 70 82 / 10 10 50 60
NAVY CORPUS 75 83 72 79 / 10 10 60 70
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...KRS/98
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page