293
FXUS64 KCRP 010848
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TONIGHT.
- MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THEN SWINGING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A MID-
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AFTER IT MOVES ONSHORE
FROM SOCAL. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE (30-45%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT. SPC HAS THE BRUSH COUNTRY UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
REST OF SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY. THIS AREA OF
CONCERN WILL HAVE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT PROVIDING UPLIFT
AND MOISTURE TO HELP INITIATE STORMS. ALSO THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAINLY WEST AND NORTH UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY RANGE FROM 0.25 EAST
TO AROUND 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST BRUSH COUNTRY. THERE'S
A LOW 15% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES ACCORDING TO HREF
OVER THIS REGION. PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS.
BEACH HAZARDS STILL EXIST TODAY. WE HAVE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4-6 FT. TODAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, MID 80S EAST TO AROUND 100 OUT WEST. TOMORROW
EXPECT LOW 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES TODAY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WILL RANGE 100-105 DEGREES AND THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND THE LOW TO
MID 70S REGION-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
WE START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TROUGHING STRETCHED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER AZ WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER UT. AS THE PATTERN
PROGRESSES OVER THE WEEKEND, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH THE DESERT SW LOW INCHING ACROSS AZ INTO NM. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWESTERN REGION ON TUESDAY. NEAR
THE SURFACE, A LLJ DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE MAX
OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OF AROUND 35 KNOTS, MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY,
REPRESENTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY EXPECT A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DAILY
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER STARTING SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A RESULT OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 80S INCREASING OUT WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THEN BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO ANOTHER FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 70S WILL DIP AROUND
5 DEGREES INLAND SATURDAY AND THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY NIGHTS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR OUR EASTERNMOST SITES,
WITH OUR WESTERN SITES FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PATCHY FOG EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS, INCLUDING KALI AND KVCT. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO DENOTE
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING ALONGSIDE GUSTY WINDS,
SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, LOW CHANCES (20-40%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXIST THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF -SHRA FOR KVCT
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A MODERATE (BF 4) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FLOW THEN BECOMES GENTLE
TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AS WINDS
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) DEVELOPS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DECREASING ONCE AGAIN. MODERATE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 74 87 70 / 10 10 10 60
VICTORIA 89 71 87 67 / 20 10 40 60
LAREDO 99 72 96 70 / 20 40 20 70
ALICE 93 72 91 69 / 10 10 20 60
ROCKPORT 86 75 85 71 / 20 20 20 60
COTULLA 98 72 94 69 / 30 50 40 70
KINGSVILLE 90 73 90 70 / 10 10 10 50
NAVY CORPUS 83 76 83 72 / 20 10 10 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...KRS/98
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