317
FXUS64 KCRP 020546
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT, INCREASING TO MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH A MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
OFF ALONG THAT STATIONARY FRONT BUT, FOR NOW, IT SEEMS LIKE THESE
STORMS WILL STAY MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUING
TO RISE, WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO
MOVE TO THE EAST. EXPECT THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
CAUSE OF OUR LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WITH HIGH MUCAPE VALUES (~3800 J/KG) AND NO
CAP, EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO EVEN GREATER INSTABILITY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR WEATHER
AS ANY STORMS COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WHILE WE CAN ONLY HOPE, THERE IS
ALSO A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS
TONIGHT AS WELL SO WE MAY EVEN SEE AS MUCH AS 0.7" INCH OF RAIN.
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS. FOR NOW, EXPECT A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY
- DAILY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY PM THRU THURSDAY
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE PREVIOUS DAY'S LINE OF STORMS WILL
GENERALLY MEANDER IN THE RGV, BRINGING HIGHER POPS (50-70%) IN THE
SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY, BUT LOWER POPS (25-50%) IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AND INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THE LATEST NBM KEEPS THIS
POP TREND (HIGHER IN THE RGV AND LOWER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS)
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. QPF TOTALS HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH, BUT AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES, SOME HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THUS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STILL REMAINS MAINLY 0.5 TO 1", BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TOTALS NORTHWEST WHERE THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE. GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBS OF ABOVE 1" HAVE DECREASED FROM LAST NIGHTS GUIDANCE,
BUT OTHER ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTION A MEDIUM CHANCE.
RIDGING BUILDS BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES, BUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON, A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL AGAIN BRING UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE, DAILY SHOWER
ACTIVITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE LATTER-HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
RECENT STORMS OVER COT CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND BR.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS EVENT. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A LINE OF STORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS MOST LIKELY DURING THE EVENING TO LATE NIGHT HOURS BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT EARLIER STORM FORMATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) BREEZE WILL DECREASE TO A GENTLE (BF
3) BREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY, FLOW BECOMES MORE
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH 3-4 FT SEAS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, FLOW VEERS TO BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH 4 FT
SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. FROM MONDAY NIGHT, ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
ALLOWING SEAS TO INCREASE TO 5-6 FT IN THE OPEN WATERS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS DAILY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 83 66 80 / 50 50 20 20
VICTORIA 67 83 58 83 / 60 30 10 10
LAREDO 70 82 66 82 / 70 60 30 30
ALICE 70 84 63 82 / 60 50 20 20
ROCKPORT 72 84 67 82 / 60 50 20 20
COTULLA 68 83 63 83 / 60 30 20 10
KINGSVILLE 70 83 65 81 / 50 60 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 73 81 70 79 / 60 60 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...BF/80
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