968
FXUS64 KCRP 021131
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS UPGRADED ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS
TO A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND WITH A PROBABILITY OF 15% AND HAIL
WITH A PROBABILITY OF 5-15% ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS LESS LIKELY BUT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS
- MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST OTHER THAN SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL GET UPLIFT SUPPORT FROM A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
SUBTROPICAL JET, SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTHERN
COUNTIES UP AGAINST A SLIGHT RISK. SFC BASED CAPE > 2000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR 40-50 KNOTS WILL HELP SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A MARGINAL RISK WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. PLEASE
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH (50-75%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM 0.25 NORTH EAST TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WEST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, MID 80S EAST TO MID 90S WEST. TOMORROW EXPECT LOW
TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S REGION-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DAILY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY PM THRU THURSDAY
SEVERAL MID DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BOUNDARIES LINGERING AROUND THE REGION COMBINED
WITH WEAK RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK SO EXPECT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
ON THE LOW END (20-30%) MOST DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MODERATE (~40-60%) TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES MAKE THERE WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
TO KICK OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO 90S RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WITH 70S RETURNING MONDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME VFR LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPTICK IN STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS EVENT. EXPECTED STORM
EVOLUTION DEPICTED BY HI- RES MODELS HAVE A LINE OF STORMS MOVING
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIGS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) BREEZE TODAY WILL DECREASE TO A
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BREEZE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE BACKING NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, FLOW VEERS SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
3-4 FT SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. FROM MONDAY EVENING, A FRESH (BF 5)
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING SEAS TO INCREASE TO 5-6 FT IN THE
OPEN WATERS. SEAS RETURN TO A GENERALLY MODERATE BREEZE (BF 4)
BECOMING NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS DAILY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 70 81 65 / 10 60 40 20
VICTORIA 87 66 83 59 / 30 50 30 10
LAREDO 96 70 81 65 / 10 70 50 20
ALICE 91 68 83 63 / 20 60 40 20
ROCKPORT 86 70 84 67 / 10 50 40 10
COTULLA 93 68 83 62 / 30 70 20 10
KINGSVILLE 89 69 81 65 / 10 60 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 83 72 81 70 / 10 60 60 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80
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