435
FXUS64 KCRP 030243
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
943 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED S TX IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH UNTIL 2 AM. STRONG STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED
SOUTHEAST INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA THIS EVENING AND AT
THIS TIME, REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE,
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONTINUES. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS
ARE APPROACHING LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT
IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS S TX OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, LOCALIZED FLOODING
OR FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS AND URBAN AREAS. KEEP UP WITH
THE CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS, SLIGHT RISK OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
FURTHER INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ADDING TO
AN IMPRESSIVE 18Z OBSERVED ~4100 J/KG MUCAPE. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE AREA (ALONG WITH THE
FRONT) BETWEEN 01Z-03Z, THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE UNLIKELY, A TORNADO COULD BE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN THESE CELLS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY LINEAR WITH MORE OF A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA (AROUND
09Z), THOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LONG TERM IS GOING TO BE PRETTY WET AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THAT WILL KICK OFF SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARIES THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AROUND (30-50%) MOST DAYS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES BEING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE ARE THE DAYS MODELS
DEPICT A BOUNDARY STALLING TO THE NORTH AROUND CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL BE MORE PLEASANT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AS WE WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS WILL BE MOMENTARILY SHORT LIVED WITH 80S AND UPPER 90S OUT WEST
TUESDAY, THOUGH MOSTLY 80S RETURN DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ACROSS TO CENTRAL AND EAST TX
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE COT AND VCT TAF SITES
AROUND 01Z, LRD AROUND 02Z-03Z, AND ALI/CRP SITES AROUND 03Z-05Z.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED GUST UP TO AROUND 30KT GIVEN
THE PROBABILITY OF STRONGER 50-60KT IS LOW AROUND 15%. A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND STORMS. THE STORMS
ARE ALONG A COLD FRONT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN BECOME EAST BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF S TX BY 10-12Z, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN RETREATS NORTHWARD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 34 KNOTS, HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND UNPREDICTABLE IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, A MODERATE (BF 4) TO OCCASIONALLY GENTLE
(BF 3) BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, FLOW VEERS SOUTHEASTERLY WITH 3-4 FT SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY. FROM MONDAY EVENING, A FRESH (BF 5) ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
ALLOWING SEAS TO INCREASE TO 5-6 FT IN THE OPEN WATERS. GENERALLY
MODERATE FLOW WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY EVENING THOUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO RESPOND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS DAILY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 82 65 80 / 60 30 10 10
VICTORIA 65 83 58 84 / 60 20 10 0
LAREDO 69 82 66 81 / 70 40 10 20
ALICE 67 84 63 83 / 60 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 70 84 67 82 / 60 30 10 10
COTULLA 68 83 62 84 / 80 20 0 10
KINGSVILLE 68 82 65 81 / 60 40 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 71 81 71 79 / 60 40 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...TE/81
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