994
FXUS64 KCRP 030818
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING, RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING TO
UNDER 15% AFTER NOON. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING US TO DRY OUT. AS THE FRONT RETREATS
NORTHWARD SUNDAY, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-25%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATUREWISE, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 80S WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE DAYTIME HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN NORMAL,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF TRENDS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER, THIS BREAK IN ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES, A MORE
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. BY MONDAY,
MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AND THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO INCREASE,
SETTING THE STAGE FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES, SUPPORTING
RENEWED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-60% MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CURRENTLY EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ACROSS TO CENTRAL AND EAST TX
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE COT AND VCT TAF SITES
AROUND 01Z, LRD AROUND 02Z-03Z, AND ALI/CRP SITES AROUND 03Z-05Z.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED GUST UP TO AROUND 30KT GIVEN
THE PROBABILITY OF STRONGER 50-60KT IS LOW AROUND 15%. A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND STORMS. THE STORMS
ARE ALONG A COLD FRONT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN BECOME EAST BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF S TX BY 10-12Z, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN RETREATS NORTHWARD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A MODERATE BREEZE (BF 4) WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (30-
55%) WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BEFORE DROPPING TO
UNDER 25% TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5)
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH 3-4 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
FROM MONDAY EVENING, A FRESH (BF 5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO INCREASE TO 5-6 FT IN THE OPEN WATERS. GENERALLY MODERATE FLOW
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY EVENING THOUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO RESPOND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS DAILY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 83 65 81 71 / 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 83 56 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 83 67 82 70 / 30 20 20 30
ALICE 83 62 83 68 / 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 67 82 73 / 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 84 62 83 68 / 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 84 64 82 70 / 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 71 80 73 / 20 10 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...TE/81
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